There are six games for Tuesday’s main DraftKings NBA slate, which starts at 7:00 p.m. ET. There are four teams (the Mavericks, Timberwolves, Thunder and Raptors) playing the second leg of a back-to-back. DraftKings Sportsbook has one game with a double-digit spread: Thunder at Celtics (-11.5). There are three games with an O/U of at least 230: The Trail Blazers at Pacers (242), Nets at Raptors (232.5) and Timberwolves at Rockets (234.5).
Let’s break down some of the top studs and values at each position to help you build your DraftKings lineups.
Malcolm Brogdon, Indiana Pacers vs. Portland Trail Blazers, $8,800 - There are some juicy options up top at point guard today, but I’m going down a bit in salary with Brogdon, who I think could match or even exceed the output of the higher-priced players. Since Domantas Sabonis (back) has been out, Brogdon has seen his usage rate increase 3.0% and he’s put up 38.5 DKFP, 61.75 DKFP, 45.0 DKFP and 49.5 DKFP. This game has the highest implied total on the slate and the Trail Blazers are 29th in defensive efficiency. They also boost the fantasy points per minute to point guards by 5.4% above league average.
Other Options – Luka Doncic ($10,900), Stephen Curry ($10,500)
Armoni Brooks, Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, $4,300 – John Wall (hamstring) has been shut down for the season, so Brooks should get all the playing time he can handle. On Friday, with Wall out, Brooks played 43 minutes, attempted 12 shots, and scored 27.25 DKFP. Brooks is only averaging 0.73 DKFP per minute on the season and he’s shooting 37% from the field, but he’s played a grand total of nine career games. He’s going to play over 30 minutes and should get more comfortable as he gains more experience. The Timberwolves play at the fourth-fastest pace and are 28th in defensive efficiency. They also boost the fantasy points per minute to point guards by 6.54% above league average and 11.8% above league average to shooting guards.
Other Options – D’Angelo Russell ($6,300)
Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors, $9,500 – Over the last three games, Kyrie has garnered a usage rate of 33%, 35% and 30% while contributing 62.75 DKFP, 51.75 DKFP and 62.0 DKFP. Two of those games were without both James Harden (hamstring) and Kevin Durant ($8,300), with the most recent featuring the return of the latter. Translation: It doesn’t matter as he’s going to eat regardless. He faced this Raptors team three games ago and put up 62.75 DKFP.
Other Options – Terry Rozier ($7,700)
Edmond Sumner, Indiana Pacers vs. Portland Trail Blazers, $4,000 – Sumner has started 13 of the past 14 games, averaging 24.1 minutes per game. Over the last two games, though, he’s played 34 and 37 minutes, attempted 15 and 13 shots and scored 22 and 21 points, which has translated to 32.25 DKFP and 33.75 DKFP, respectively. He should continue to receive over 30 minutes of playing time and he gets a good matchup as the Trail Blazers are 29th in defensive efficiency and boost the fantasy points per minute to small forwards by 7.71% above league average.
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder, $8,400 – It’s always tough to fade Luka Doncic ($10,900; elbow), as he can go bonkers on any night, but he hasn’t gone nuclear in a long time (44.75 DKFP and 47.0 DKFP in the last two games). So, at his price, if he has an average game, which is the ceiling for most players, then you put yourself in a good position. Plus, he’s listed as questionable so there’s risk from that perspective. Brown averages 1.18 DKFP per minute, but with both Kemba Walker (side) and Jayson Tatum (ankle) off the court, he sees an 8.5% usage bump to a whopping 38.3%. Both Walker and Tatum have already been ruled out for this one. The Thunder play at the seventh-fastest pace and are 25th in defensive efficiency.
Other Options – Miles Bridges ($7,500)
Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, $4,400 – As you can see, I’m not enamored with the value at small forward because I’m writing up Hardaway. Gross. Kristaps Porzingis ($8,700; ankle) and Josh Richardson ($4,800; hamstring) are doubtful for today. When they are off the court, Hardaway sees a two percent bump in usage rate. Doncic, JJ Redick ($3,000; heel), Dorian Finney-Smith ($5,300; leg), and Maxi Kleber ($4,200; back) are also questionable. When all of those players are off the floor, Hardaway sees a 12.3% usage bump to 35.7%. So, the worst-case scenario is that he sees a slight usage bump increase. The best-case scenario is that he becomes the alpha. Win, win. On the season, Hardaway is averaging 0.86 DKFP per minute and 28.3 minutes per game. Now, over the last 10 games, he’s gone for fewer than 20.0 DKFP six times, but he does have four 40-burgers on the season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets, $10,700 – Giannis has put up 61.5 DKFP, 58.0 DKFP and 62.5 DKFP in the last three games. It’s crazy to write, but that’s good for Giannis; not great. On the season, he’s averaging a ridiculous 1.65 DKFP per minute. The Hornets boost the fantasy points per minute to power forwards by 5.76% above league average, and the last time he faced Charlotte, he only went for 74.0 DKFP. He has the best floor/ceiling combo on the slate.
Other Options – Kevin Durant ($8,300), Draymond Green ($7,400)
Oshae Brissett, Indiana Pacers vs Portland Trail Blazers, $5,000 – Brissett has started the past four games in place of Sabonis. He’s played 25, 42, 38 and 31 minutes, contributing 24.0 DKFP, 51.5 DKFP, 32.25 DKFP and 25.5 DKFP. Sabonis and Myles Turner (foot) are out, while Goga Bitadze ($4,000; ankle) is questionable again. Brissett is going to get as much run as he can handle in a game that has the highest total on the slate by a wide margin.
Other Options – Jaden McDaniels ($3,600)
Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers, $6,800 – He’s back! Nurkic has played 29 minutes in each of the last three games. There’s a chance he breaks through the 30-minute barrier at some point soon. Regardless, he’s been an absolute beast over the last two games, going for 52.75 DKFP and 59.75 DKFP. Now he gets the best matchup for centers, as the Pacers boost the fantasy points per minute by 29.2% above league average. That’s first by a wide margin, as the second-most generous team allows a 17.6% increase.
Other Option – Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000)
Khem Birch, Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets, $4,700 – Since arriving in Toronto, Birch has started six of eight games. During those starts, he’s averaged 28.4 minutes and 25.0 DKFP. The access to ceiling has been non-existent, but he did put up a 50-burger while with the Magic, so there’s a Lloyd Christmas chance. The floor is as solid as it gets, though.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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