It’s three-bet Tuesday! I don’t know, I was just trying to get some of that sweet, sweet alliteration going for me. The thing is, we’ll always run through three games here in MLB Best Bets that represent profitable spots, and I’ve got my eye on a few today. With that in mind, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
To me, this is a phenomenal deal. This Mets offense sits 15th in wRC+ against right-handers and still can’t hit the baseball. The only thing this lineup can hang their hat on is scoring six runs off of Eric Fedde and a bad (and fatigued) Nats bullpen, which is hardly anything to get excited about. Another righty stands in their way in Garrett Richards, who hasn’t really been great this year, but should get the job done against some struggling bats, and do more than enough to get his offense a win.
Speaking of, I’m in love with this spot for the Red Sox bats. They rank sixth against left-handers with a 121 wRC+, and face a really terrible one in the soft-tossing David Peterson. He ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in expected ERA and expected wOBA, and has allowed an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph. Nothing has gone right for him in two years at the big-league level except one good start against a lethargic Phillies offense. The Sox should tee off here and get this road win.
Ironically, I can’t pass up on the chance to take this “lethargic Phillies offense” as an underdog. Why’s that, you may ask? Well, they’re facing Carlos Martinez, who could be one of the worst pitchers in baseball at the moment. He’s ranking in the bottom 7% of the league with just a 14.3% strikeout rate, and has given up an average exit velocity of 90.3 mph. What’s ailed the Phillies this year has been their whiffs, ranking sixth in swinging strike rate. That shouldn’t be an issue against a guy lacking swing-and-miss stuff as badly as Martinez, who has done away with the changeup that worked so well for him last year.
Zach Eflin’s peripherals point to a bit of regression, but he’s been perfectly fine in 2021. That should be enough to navigate one of the most average lineups in baseball, I give the Phillies a slight edge here.
Team Total: Rays OV 3.5 Runs (-134)
There are a lot of pitchers on this slate I absolutely despise, but I think this matchup might be my favorite one. The Rays haven’t been overwhelming at the plate this year like they were at times last season, but they’ve quietly ranked 11th in wRC+ against right-handers. As far as Frankie Montas, you can bet your life he is in that category of pitchers I despise. Montas is not good whatsoever, giving up barrels at an alarming 16.7% rate this year, which naturally has led to a .582 xSLG, which ranks in the bottom 12% of the league. That’s bad even for Montas’ standards. He’s giving up hard hit balls at a 45% clip, has almost exactly average strikeout stuff and has posted a 6.75 ERA so far this year. I am also very nervous about trusting Michael Wacha, so I think your best bet is to just roll with the team total. Tampa Bay should smack Montas around.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.