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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Showdown on April 29

Pearce Dietrich gives his top lineup advice for Thursday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Rockies and Diamondbacks, which starts at 9:40 p.m. ET.

Colorado Rockies v San Francisco Giants Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images

The bad news is two terrible teams are on the showdown slate. The good news is bad teams have bad pitchers, and this leads to explosive offensive shootouts. Although both offenses leave a lot to the imagination, there is enough talent in these lineups to make for an exciting Thursday night showdown.



Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Captain’s Picks

Ryan McMahon ($15,300 CP) - Let’s make this simple. He’s the best batter on the slate and he’s facing the worst pitcher on the slate. McMahon has a .337 wOBA, .277 ISO, and 41% hard-contact rate in 65 at-bats against right handed pitching this season. This isn’t just any right-handed pitcher, either; Luke Weaver ($16,200 CP; $10,800) struggles with left-handed batters. This season, Weaver is allowing three HR/9, .333 ISO, and a 44% fly-ball rate to lefties. Last season, his numbers were just as ugly.

Carson Kelly ($14,400 CP) - Antonio Senzatela ($15,600 CP; $10,400) is in an interesting spot because he is a reverse-splits pitcher — the right-handed pitcher is decent against left-handed batters, but struggles against right-handed batters. He could limit a Diamondbacks lineup full of left-handed batters, but he’ll struggle with the right-handed batters (vs. RHB in 2021: .420 wOBA, .271 ISO, 42% hard-contact rate, 16% K rate and 2.5 HR/9). Carson Kelly has a .427 wOBA, .306 ISO and a 170 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $35K Showdown of the Week [$10K to 1st] (COL vs ARI)


Value Plays

Raimel Tapia ($7,000) - It’s a cheap lefty against Weaver, and it sure beats rostering Old Man Charlie Blackmon. Tapia has a hit in 17 of his 23 games this season. Against right-handed pitching, he has a .355 wOBA, .172 ISO, 111 wRC+ and a low 14% K rate. Tapia has been an above-average fastball hitter and an exceptional changeup hitter this season, and those two pitches are 95% of Weaver’s repertoire.

Yonathan Daza ($5,000) - There is always the extreme savings option. The left handed bats for the Rockies are the first option, but for the savings, Daza is in play. All of the 2021 projection models have Daza as a player that can hit for average but without any pop, and he’s doing exactly what they predicted (.311 average and .111 ISO). At his price, some hits, a run and possibly an RBI will work. If he can’t get to Weaver, then he gets to face a bullpen with a 4.74 xFIP.


Fades

Charlie Blackmon ($9,900 CP; $6,600) - As the kids say, he’s dust. Halfway through last season, Blackmon folded up like a lawn chair. He hit .163 in spring training and has started this season as cold as it gets (.269 wOBA and .123 ISO). What’s wrong? He’s old. Blackmon isn’t chasing pitches out of the zone and his swinging-strike rate has not changed. Where Blackmon is aging is where everyone ages. His hard-contact rate is at a career-low, he’s pulling everything and he rates as an average run producer against fastballs. Father time is undefeated. Power and reflexes do not last forever.


The Outcome

Does anyone really care who wins? The real question is how many runs are going up on the board. Weaver has allowed eight earned runs over his last nine innings, and that streak will not end Wednesday. The runs keep coming, and Senzatela does a decent job with the Diamondbacks’ left-handed bats. The Rockies squeak this one out, but the scoreboard goes to double digits in the process.

Final Score: Rockies 7, Diamondbacks 5

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $35K Showdown of the Week [$10K to 1st] (COL vs ARI)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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