The Valspar Championship is a stern test of golf, which means roster construction should skew to the top of the board where the winning equity is high. Golfers who play well in difficult scoring conditions is the narrative that’s playing out the most this week, not including course history and current form. While rostering guys who play well on challenging courses is a worthwhile strategy, we’ve seen many players fall victim to the Copperhead Course over the years, so be cautious when chasing the chalk this week.
Course history, current form, or your favorite golf tout has pumped up the projected DraftKings ownership for individual golfers throughout the week. This article will look at the projected chalk and pivot in each significant salary range when entering lineups in GPPs on DraftKings.
For a full course preview and who I like in the betting market, please refer to the DraftKings Preview and DraftKings Sportsbook articles. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
Projected Popular Golfer: Patrick Reed ($10,300)
Pivot: Dustin Johnson ($11,200)
Reed is someone I like this week, but Dustin Johnson should warrant some looks if he’s going to come in less than double-digits in roster percentage, which is what he’s projecting at as of press time. Both players aren’t hitting their irons particularly well, but Johnson has been stellar Off-the-Tee and with his putting. He’s also the No.1 golfer in the world, and getting DJ as the second-most expensive player on a course with four par 5s, should be a viable reason in GPPs to pay up and save somewhere else.
$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Corey Conners ($9,600)
Pivot: Kevin Na ($8,000)
Conners has been playing fantastic for the last six months, especially on the weekends, so it makes sense why he’s projecting to be one of the highest-rostered players this week. Conners’ ball-striking and putting have been off-the-charts, and he had a top 20 here back in 2018. While you don’t have to pay down this much to get leverage off Conners rosters, Kevin Na is someone to consider this week. He’s played well here in the past, finishing with a top 10 in 2015 and a runner-up the year previous. Na was not good at the RBC Heritage, but we have to go back to 2018 to find when he missed back-to-back cuts. He’s a great bermuda putter and doesn’t need a lot of current form to play well the following week; he lost 4.5 strokes at TOC before winning The Sony Open this season.
$7,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Doug Ghim ($7,300)
Pivot: Chez Reavie ($6,700)
It’s going to be difficult fading Ghim’s ball-striking, but it’s dangerous chasing the chalk in this range, with how volatile these guys are every week. People also seem to be chasing his PLAYERS Championship form, which hasn’t shown up in his placing, finishing 44th at Valero and 33rd at the RBC Heritage. Chez Reavie has missed three straight cuts but ranks 12th in SG: Approach over his previous 12 rounds in difficult scoring conditions. He’s one of the best long-iron players and has gained Off-the-Tee in his last six-straight tournaments.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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