This is the final game of the two-game series between the San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks took the first game by a score of 5-1. Ryan Weathers ($9,800) takes the mound for the Padres while Taylor Widener ($10,600) goes for the Diamondbacks. The temperature is expected to be around 82 degrees with 14 percent humidity and winds blowing out to left at 9.0 mph. DraftKings Sportsbook has the total set at 9.0 runs with the Padres favored.
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Carson Kelly ($13,200 CP) - I’m fading Ryan Weathers tonight. I’ll go more into that in the FADES section below. Kelly is slashing .340/.508/.766 with a .426 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He has six home runs this year and the plate discipline numbers have been fantastic - 21.5% walk rate and 15.4% strikeout rate. The slash is .340/.508/.766 while the BABIP is .315. He will also likely bat second in the lineup.
Trent Grisham ($15,600 CP) - Taylor Widener is #notgood. The FIP is 4.73 and he’s allowed four home runs in 22.1 innings. The barrel rate is 11.8% and he’s allowing a whopping 47.1% hard-hit rate. Against lefties, in particular, the FIP is 6.08 and the HR/9 is 2.5. The Diamondbacks bullpen also has the sixth-highest FIP. Grisham has four home runs and five stolen bases on the season. The ISO is a healthy. 226. He’s striking out 27.1% of the time but the walk rate is 11.4%. The slash of .290/.371/.516 is fueled by a .359 BABIP so regression will happen at some point. That doesn’t mean it starts today. In his career against right-handed pitching, the strikeout rate is 23% and the ISO is .208.
Value UTIL Plays
Nick Ahmed ($5,400) - Ahmed bats seventh and is slashing .140/.173/.180 on the season. Gross. With that said, he’s cheap and has had an unfortunate start to the season with a BABIP of .175. He has 10/5 potential so, while he may never be a hero, he’s definitely not a zero. Over the last three games, he’s collected three hits with two doubles in nine plate appearances, so the small trend may be our friend.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Padres 2B Jake Cronenworth is not in the lineup tonight vs. Diamondbacks.
Jake Cronenworth ($6,400) - Cronenworth is much more successful against righties than lefties. In his brief career up to this point, the ISO is .213 compared to .048 against lefties. He does bat towards the bottom of the lineup, but the plate discipline numbers have been good - 10% walk rate and 16.4% strikeout rate. He also has double-digit steal potential, not in one game as that would be some kind of record, so there are multiple paths to producing fantasy goodies.
Ryan Weathers ($9,800) - The numbers look fantastic for Weathers as the ERA is at 0.59 and he’s only allowed four hits in 15.1 innings while striking out 16. Digging in deeper, though, the swinging strike rate is only 8.9% and he’s been extremely lucky. The BABIP is a paltry .097 while the LOB% is 100%. He’s also allowing a 9.4% barrel rate, 40.6% hard contact rate, and the average exit velocity is 91.2 mph. He’s been tougher against lefties (2.97 FIP) than righties (4.21 FIP) as well. ARI is 25th in strikeouts and 1st in ISO against left-handed pitching.
I see a high-scoring affair as the Diamondbacks could get to Weathers while the Padres should beat up on the Diamondbacks pitching staff. The Padres have the better bullpen by a wide margin so I like them to avenge their loss from last night.
Final Score: San Diego 6, Arizona 4
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