Wednesday was annoying because our favorite starting pitcher’s game was rained out. Let’s not be annoying today.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Trevor Bauer, $11,300, Los Angeles Dodgers (-195) at Milwaukee Brewers (+165) — It’s quite obvious who the biggest favorite will be on a slate when we have a $3,600 salary difference in the first and second most expensive options. He faces the Brewers for the first time this season and has a very legitimate chance to rack up strikeouts like he has in his first five starts. Against righties, the “Brew Crew” should be known as the “K Crew” as they have the fifth highest K% in the league against them at 27.3%. Bauer is missing a ton of bats with a 14.2% swing-and-miss rate and has at least nine strikeouts in four of his five starts. With the strikeout upside and an offense that has just a 81 wRC+ and a .151 ISO against righties, Bauer is the chalk of chalk at pitcher.
Other notable favorite: Luke Weaver ($7,700; -155) vs. Colorado Rockies
Highest Projected Total
Chicago Cubs (+120; 4.5 runs) at Atlanta Braves (-140; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — The Braves ripped Kyle Hendricks to shreds last night, forcing the Cubs to wave the white flag early and get the ol’ position player pitching alarms going. These teams are featured in the highest projected total of the night at nine runs, which features the o4.5 runs for the Braves at -130. The Braves have the second best record with the over at 14-9-1 while the Cubs are the complete opposite at 9-13-2.
The Cubs will deploy Adbert Alzolay ($7,200) for his fourth start of the season. Somehow, he’s only faced the Brewers in all of them. So if you were curious, Alzolay has allowed nine runs on nine hits with 17 strikeouts through 15 innings of work. His 3.55 FIP is quite lower than his 5.40 ERA, so he’s clearly run into some bad luck in the early going. This is a much tougher matchup than he’s had all season so this is where the true test will come in. The Braves currently own a .345 wOBA, a .210 ISO and a 117 wRC+ against righties, all of which are amongst the highest in the league. Despite the blowout last night, the Cubs preserved their bullpen as much as they could because it’s been used so often as of late. As of today, they have thrown 27 innings over the last seven days, which is seventh in the league. They haven’t been good either with a 5.46 FIP and a 1/3 HR/9.
No weather concerns!
Splits to Start
These stats will show the 2020 numbers until May 1st.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Luke Weaver, .405, 6.32
Kyle Gibson, .363, 6.78
Martin Perez, .343, 6.57
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Trevor Bauer, .258, 3.90
Josh Tomlin, .276, 3.86 (projected long reliever vs. MIL)
Antonio Senzatela, .315, 4.80
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Gibson, .350, 4.36
Josh Tomlin, .337, 4.16 (projected long reliever vs. MIL)
Luke Weaver, .333, 3.26
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Trevor Bauer, .192, 1.76
Adbert Alzolay, .226, 3.11
Antonio Senzatela .302, 4.28
Pitcher to Build Around
Trevor Bauer, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $11,300 — Bauer is talked about more extensively above and truly, I wish I had another SP1 to give. This is going to be a slate where you have to find the right SP2 to pair with Bauer as I have no doubt that’s how the winning lineup will pan out. The strikeout upside and lack of hitting by the Brewers gives Bauer a sky-high ceiling, which is why he’s so much more expensive than the other options.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies, $5,000 — Not much attention has been given to Peralta this season, likely because he’s on the Diamondbacks. Make no mistake about it, the man is simply crushing the baseball right now. He enters this game averaging a massive 11.8 DKFP over his last 10 games which has seen him go 15-39 with two doubles, a triple, two home runs and 12 RBI. Tonight, he’ll face off against Antonio Senzatela ($6,000) who struggled against lefties way more on the road than he did at Coors. In that scenario, Senzatela had a .406 wOBA, a 7.72 FP and four of the nine home runs he allowed. When you’re looking to pay up for a bat, Peralta may not stick out but once you dive into those numbers, he’s an extremely good play.
Save Big by Drafting
A.J. Pollock, Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, $3,100 — It’s been a slow start to the season for Pollock, who is averaging just 5.4 DKFP on the season. However, I really like his matchup against Eric Lauer ($6,700) who was called up to make a start tonight. His time in the majors hasn’t exactly been memorable and he has struggled with home runs and hard contact all throughout his career. Pollock his always been a much better hitter against lefties and had a .468 wOBA with a .473 ISO and a 201 wRC+ against them in 2020. He’ll come around eventually but this is the perfect type of matchup to target at such a low salary.
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