There are four games for Sunday’s NBA main slate, with one game tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET — the Memphis Grizzlies at the Philadelphia 76ers. There is one game at 7:30 p.m. ET — the Golden State Warriors at the Atlanta Hawks. There is one game at 8:00 p.m. ET — the New Orleans Pelicans at the Houston Rockets. The late-night hammer is the Orlando Magic at the Denver Nuggets, which starts at 10:00 p.m. ET.
The Magic and 76ers are playing the second leg of a back-to-back. DraftKings Sportsbook has one game with a double-digit spread — DEN -16. Roster percentages of Nuggets players will determine how much exposure I have to them, as the minutes could be slashed. There are no games with an O/U of at least 230.
There is big injury news that could affect the slate, as Joel Embiid ($10,500; injury management) will sit out the back end of a back-to-back. As for the Pelicans, Lonzo Ball ($7,200; hip), Brandon Ingram ($8,500; toe) and Zion Williamson ($9,300; thumb) are all questionable. Their replacements, though, have been priced up so no free squares today.
Let’s break down some of the top studs and values at each position to help you build your DraftKings lineups.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks, $9,800 – Curry has missed six of eight games due to a tailbone injury. In the two games he did play, he went for 51.75 and 56.75 DKFP. On the season, he is averaging 1.45 DKFP per minute and is not listed on the injury report for this one, so all systems go. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Warriors favored by one point with the total at 226.5, so Curry should get his full allotment of minutes (averages 33.7 mpg on the season). With a usage rate of 32.4%, the opportunities for fantasy Easter eggs should be plentiful.
Shake Milton, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $4,900 – Over the past nine games, Milton has averaged 24.2 minutes, 12.9 field goal attempts, 17.3 points, and garnered a usage rate of 27. He started one of those games, playing 36 minutes. In the other games, he played around 21 minutes. Despite that, he’s scored double figures in every game and gone over 30 DKFP in three, with one of those a 40-burger. On the season with Embiid off the court, Milton has seen a 3.8 percentage increase in usage from his season average.
Other Options – De’Anthony Melton ($4,400)
Kevin Porter Jr., Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans, $6,900 – John Wall (knee) is out today, so Porter Jr. will slide down to point guard. Last month, when Wall was out, Porter Jr. filled in admirably, exceeding 40 DKFP in four of the five games. Over the past two games, the production has dipped down to the 30-DKFP range. That’s because Christian Wood ($8,600) has returned to the rotation. With that said, he’s still garnered a usage rate of 25.5% and 27.9% in those two games and gets a favorable matchup as the Pelicans are 28th in defensive efficiency and boost the fantasy points per minute to point guards by 2.89% above league average.
Other Option – Terrence Ross ($6,700)
Seth Curry, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $4,700 – Since returning from a three-game absence, the production for Curry has been all over the map. He’s gone for 24.25, 14.5, 9.5, 36.5 and 22.75 DKFP. He has attempted over 10 shots per game in each game, though, so the opportunities have been there. He has a high of 41.25 DKFP on the season and has scored at least 30 DKFP eight times, so there’s access to ceiling games. Prior to missing those three games, he went for at least 20 DKFP in six straight games, so he can be consistent for stretches. I don’t see much value at the shooting guard position, so I’ll take someone who is averaging 27.3 minutes and 11.2 shot attempts over the past five games.
Other Options – Facundo Campazzo ($3,500)
Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $8,400 – With Embiid off the court, Harris sees a 3.6% usage bump increase to 28.1%. In 16 games that Embiid has been out, Harris has averaged 40.89 DKFP with a high of 58.5. On the season, he’s averaging 38.53 DKFP per game, and that’s including the games without Embiid. Last night, he put up 48.25 DKFP with Embiid in the lineup and the possibility for a ceiling game is increased with Embiid out.
Other Option – Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,600)
James Ennis III, Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets, $5,200 – Writing up Ennis is gross but I don’t like the value at the position. He’s a low-usage player, so points will rarely be voluminous. Over the past two games, though, he’s played 36 and 38 minutes, scoring 12 and 13 points. He can contribute a little in every category except blocks and as a result, he’s put up 22.25 and 31 DKFP in those two games. Just keep in mind that he played 28 and 27 minutes the prior two games and contributed 13.5 and 14 DKFP. With all the injuries and Operation: Tank in full force, Ennis should get over 30 minutes.
Other Options – Danny Green ($5,100)
Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic, $7,400 – I didn’t want to write up any Nuggets players, but Williamson and Ingram are both questionable and I wrote up Tobias Harris in the small forward section. Porter Jr. has really found his groove, as he’s scored at least 30 DKFP in 12 straight games with 47.75- and 55-DKFP games included. The worry for this game is blowout risk, but there have been two games in which the Nuggets won by over 20 points during this 12-game stretch. Porter Jr. played 29 and 27 minutes in those games and produced 47.75 and 34.5 DKFP.
Chuma Okeke, Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans, $5,700 – Okeke has started the past five games and contributed 41, 28.5, 31, 32.5 and 30.25 DKFP. He’s played 37, 30, 28, 34 and 33 minutes. With Operation: Tank in full effect, Okeke is going to get as much run as he can handle. Now, the price hasn’t changed much during this stretch, as the range has been $5,300 to $5,800. It seems fair because there will likely be some regression in the shooting efficiency. He’s converting 43% of his attempts on the season, but over this recent stretch, he’s been shooting 47% from the field. With that said, he is contributing in every category, so the floor is relatively high.
Other Options – Kyle Anderson ($5,600), Kelly Olynyk ($5,500)
Clint Capela, Atlanta Hawks vs. Golden State Warriors, $8,800 – Capela is averaging 1.32 DKFP per minute. Over the past three games, he’s gone for 43, 60.75 and 39.5 DKFP. The Warriors are one of the juiciest matchups for centers, as they boost the fantasy points per minute by 15.53% above league average. Capela faced the Warriors two weeks ago and contributed 47.75 DKFP.
Other Option – Christian Wood ($8,600)
Wendell Carter Jr., Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets, $5,800 – Carter Jr. has played 34 and 31 minutes the past two games, contributing 40.5 and 41.5 DKFP. Mo Bamba ($4,600) and Khem Birch ($4,800) played limited minutes as both have been dealing with illnesses and both are questionable for today’s game. If they can’t go or are limited, there is no one else on the depth chart to soak up center minutes, so even if the game is a blowout, Carter Jr. should get plenty of run. In addition, the Magic are going to want to see exactly what they have in him. Now, the matchup is the worst for centers as the Nuggets neutralize the fantasy points per minute by 18.5% below league average, but the game environment may not be an intense and competitive one.
Other Option – JaVale McGee ($3,100)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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