The name of this article is MLB Best Bets. So I will give you my best bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Let’s tell you the story of Matt Moore, the Phillies starting pitcher for April 5th, 2021.
Moore was the first pick in 2007 June Amateur Draft.....in the eighth round. Things started off great and he was enjoying his time with the Rays. Suddenly, that happiness turned to frustration in 2015 when his career seemingly turned down the wrong path. He was constantly getting hit and hit hard. It would begin a fast and furious change of teams that would see him change uniforms four times in 2016 from the Rays to the Giants then the Rangers and finally the Tigers. Down on his luck, Moore went to Japan to rejuvenate his career where he did well! He’s happy again! So the Phillies, wanting to add a ray of sunshine to their locker room, took a chance on him.
I’m not buying into this story at all and simply look at the numbers from his time in the majors. Back in 2018 when he last pitched a healthy number of innings in the majors, Moore posted a a .408 wOBA, a 4.73 FIP and a 46.6% hard-hit rate the first time through the order. So not only did they hit him hard, opposing teams jumped on him early. I love that we’re getting nearly even money on the over of 4.5 runs, a feat I feel as if the Mets can obtain. They’ll be coming into this game fresh, thanks to COVID issues with the Nationals, so I think they will have the advantage here.
If you’re REALLY felling froggy, DraftKings Sportsbook also has the Mets to lead after three innings at +107.
I was thinking this game was going to open at 10 runs, so I was pleased to see 9.5 on the board. On the mound, the Brewers are sending lefty Brett Anderson while the Cubs counter with Trevor Williams.
The Cubs vastly underperformed against lefties last season and I think that’s where the biggest advantage will come from. Last season they had a .281 wOBA (28th) a .116 ISO (29th) and a .311 SLG (30th). However, in 2019, guys like Kris Bryant, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras and Javier Baez completely feasted in these matchups. Anderson doesn’t strikeout many batters and induces a lot of groundballs for outs but I like the Cubs in this spot.
As for the Brewers, they have some good power against righties, specifically from Christian Yelich (another bounce-back candidate) and Keston Hiura. Against someone like Williams, who was statistically one of the worst pitchers in the league last season with a 6.30 FIP, and a 2.4 HR/9, I can’t imagine runs not being scored off him. One of the biggest weaknesses for the Cubs is going to be that bullpen, so getting into it early, which is a very likely outcome, only increases the chances of hitting the over.
This is a really enticing line to get the White Sox at. The pitching matchup looks a bit ugly with Carlos Rodon on the hill for the Sox and Justus Sheffield for the Mariners, so I was surprised the line was as close as it was. The White Sox are banking on a now healthy Rodon to carry over his strong spring into the regular season. No one doubts his strikeout upside but walks have been one of his biggest downfalls. Luckily for him, he faces a Mariners team that was just below league average in free passes against lefties at 9.1%. Aside from that, this team had no power with a .141 ISO to go with a .271 wOBA and just a 72 wRC+. I think the White Sox grab the “W” here in the first game of the series.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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