What a tournament it’s been so far, filled with Cinderella runs and an amazing finish to the Final Four on Saturday night. But now we’re down to the title game, and the two teams we’ve been hoping to see here all season long are still standing. Baylor and Gonzaga were supposed to square off back in December, but COVID-19 issues led to a cancelation. Now we finally get the matchup of the year on the largest stage. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Baylor vs. Gonzaga
Gonzaga +4.5 (+100) — Promo Bet
I have very high expectations for this game. I hope it lives up to the hype as an all-time classic. That said, this is a very difficult game to bet. So let’s get going with an easy one, as DK Sportsbook is running an insane promotion, flipping the line and giving us the Zags at even money. The limits are obviously set low on how large you can bet this, but whether you want to try and middle on this, or you are just a casual bettor looking to back the Zags, you’re getting nine points of value here with no juice. This one’s a no-brainer regardless of who you like in the game.
We backed Mitchell over 4.5 assists on Saturday and it was obvious we had a winner. He had four assists by the first media timeout and cashed us in the first half. Mitchell finished the game with a Baylor NCAA Tournament record of 11 dimes. We got a juiced-up number here at first because of the performance, with the number at 6.5 and -159 on the under. It wasn’t bet-able. At 5.5 I can get in, as I feel the Bears will really have to stick to running through Mitchell for 40 minutes to be at their best all game. He’s averaging 6.75 assists over the past four tournament games, cashing O5.5 in three of them. The game he finished with just two assists was against Villanova — Baylor scored a season-low 62 points and had its worst shooting game of the season in that matchup. The chances were there, his teammates just weren’t hitting the shots.
This is a pure numbers play, and Kelly In Vegas joined me on the Unreasonable Odds podcast to discuss this one some. She likes finding some of the lesser-known names in the game that potentially have an inflated line due to recency bias and playing the under, and I thought Mayer was the perfect example. He came off the bench against Houston and scored five points within seconds, and finished the game with 12 points, going over his 7.5-point prop. That one game now has him jumping all the way up to 9.5 points with a -127 price on the over? Mayer scored in single-digits in three of the four tournament games before Saturday and actually hit the under on this number in six of his previous seven contests overall. Mayer averages 8.3 points this season but also plays just 15.7 minutes off the bench. He’s going to have to knock down most of his shots in limited minutes to cash this one. Through 29 games this season, Mayer’s stayed under 9.5 points 18 times. Too much value here to pass on the number at even odds.
So I think a lot of us might have opportunities to hedge some futures tonight, as both the Zags and Bears were popular teams to bet on to win it all, and now we get them matching up. I’m fortunate enough to be on Gonzaga +1000, and gave out the play on Twitter back in November. I’ve let it ride this far, despite some minor heart attacks on Saturday night with that UCLA game.
So I have one unit to win 10 units on the Zags winning this game outright. I’m likely going to hedge 3-4 units on Baylor, but with the points rather than the moneyline. Playing Baylor at +5 with a half point bought would allow me to win 6-7 units if the Zags win by more than five points, and still profit a couple of units if Baylor pulls off the upset. But the big upside here is a middle, where the Zags win, but Baylor covers, and we get those 13-14 units. Hopefully, some of you are in the same position.
If you happen to have Baylor to win it all at anything +500 or better, I’d considering hedging with some Gonzaga ML if you’ve wagered enough where you want to lock in some profit. If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter and I’ll do my best to get back to you before the game.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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