This week is one of golf’s best. The Spring flowers bring Augusta’s power. This is not how the saying goes, and it doesn’t really make sense, but the Masters Tournament takes place this week and that, for all of us in golf, makes sense.
The field of 88 golfers is set (as of this article), and this may be one of the more competitive majors we see this season. It may be premature to say before the Masters even starts, but there are cases for golfers from Dustin Johnson down to Webb Simpson here. The average winning odds since 2010 is +3800, with DJ as the shortest at +900 and Charl Schwartzel as the longest at +9000. Looking over the past five years, the average world ranking of the winners before the week of their win is 8.6.
Course history is going to play a factor here as well, and finding those players that fit the trends, and pass the eye test, should make your betting card on DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
Like I mentioned in the DraftKings Preview, Bryson’s irons and bentgrass putting make the difference here over the other golfers in this range. DeChambeau is 12th in approach over his last two dozen rounds and first in driving, which catapults him to the top when looking for pure ball-strikers this week. Not having a greens book does scare me a little for Bryson, since he relies on his numbers. Still, four made cuts here, a win just a few tournaments ago and a top 3 at Sawgrass start to paint a nice picture for us to back the fifth-ranked golfer in the world. Rory McIlroy (+1900) is enticing with his solid course history here, but his number could increase as the week progresses, so keep an eye out for that.
Distance will help on any course, and Augusta National is no exception. Still, this is a true second-shot course where you need to set yourself up on the correct quadrants of these greens depending on pin placement. Even though Simpson hasn’t been great with his irons recently, he is still one of the best on the PGA TOUR and has a top-five and top 10 here in his previous two starts. Reports out of Augusta National are saying Brooks Koepka (+2800) looks healthy. His last two finishes are a seventh last year and a runner-up the previous year. This is a big tournament and he’s always up when the stakes are highest.
Course history will matter. Repetition emphasizes the importance, which is why Rose is someone to consider as a long shot to outperform their odds and expectations. Only four players are ahead of Rose in SG: Total here since 2016, and three of those players are at the top of the betting board (Johnson, McIlroy, Rahm). Rose hasn’t been great this year but still has a runner-up finish at the Saudi International and a top 25 here back in November.
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