Fernando Tatis Jr injured himself last night and I’m not happy. So, come read an angry edition of the MLB Cheat Sheet. Or don’t. I don’t care right now.
As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yu Darvish, $10,000, San Diego Padres (-215) vs. San Francisco Giants (+175) — Darvish better dedicate this start to his teammate Tatis or I’m going to riot. I mean, the White Sox signed a jersey for Eloy Jimenez, the least Darvish can do is draw Tatis’ number 23 in the dirt on the mound or something.
Anyways, Darvish wasn’t that sharp in his debut against the Diamondbacks on Opening Day, allowing four runs on eight hits while striking out six through 4.2 innings. The D-Backs don’t exactly have a daunting offense so that was a bit concerning. The Giants are a much better offense against lefties, so hopefully this is a good spot to get back on track for Darvish. While he may, this isn’t a team you necessarily attack if you’re seeking out strikeouts. Against righties last season, the Giants only produced a 22.2 K%, which was one of the lowest in the league.
When you look at the number of elite starters taking the hill tonight, paying up for Darvish doesn’t make a ton of sense for me. Clayton Kershaw ($9,500) against the Athletics, Tyler Glasnow ($9,100) against the Red Sox and Lucas Giolito ($9,300) vs. the Mariners are all more enticing matchups for me.
Highest Projected Total
Arizona Diamondbacks (EV; 5.5 runs ) at Colorado Rockies (-117; 5.5 runs ) — No surprise to see the highest total on the night belongs to Coors, especially with all the studs taking the mound. Neither team is exactly crushing the ball to open the season but both have beatable matchups on tap. Luke Weaver ($6,500) said he “felt good about his strong finish” to giving up seven runs in 5.1 innings against the Royals. Whatever the hell that means.
Meanwhile, the D-Backs will face German Marquez ($7,000) who only allowed one run to the Dodgers but also walked six batters while only striking out two. I feel as if we have a number of ways where the over on this total can be obtained, as both bullpens are each team’s biggest weakness, in my humble opinion. The over is certainly in play here in a game where I think it easily could have been set higher. 10.5 runs seems a tad bit too low for this pitching matchup and environment.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies - 15 mph winds blowing IN from right field
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers - 18 mph winds blowing OUT toward left (Check if roof is open or closed).
Splits to Start
These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Chase Anderson, .431, 6.62
Luke Weaver, .405, 6.32
Martin Perez, .343, 6.57
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Clayton Kershaw, .258, 4.49
Yu Darvish, .262, 3.02
Tyler Glasnow, .265, 2.41
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tanner Roark, .495, 8.52
Chase Anderson, .397, 5.84
James Paxton, .372, 4.37
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Adbert Alzolay, .226, 3.11
Yu Darvish, .230, 0.98
Lucas Giolito, .243, 1.95
Pitcher to Build Around
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, $9,300 — Honestly, you have a number of different ways you can go for your SP1 tonight. I do like Giolito a lot, especially after seeing what Carlos Rodon did to them last night. I like the Mariners as a whole but this is a team that will provide strikeouts. Last season against righties, they combined for a 24.0% K% against righties. Hitting, they had just a .307 wOBA, a .146 ISO and a 99 wRC+, which doesn’t exactly strike fear into opposing pitchers. Giolito will bring some of the best strikeout upside on this slate and is the third-most expensive pitcher at $9,300.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, $4,900 — With the idea we’ll be paying up for pitching, I wanted to keep my top hitter under $5k if possible. Barely making the cut is Arozarena, who’ll face Martin Perez ($6,700) in his first start of the season. He was wildly inconsistent last season and is someone who will give up plenty of flyballs and hard contact. Arozarena doesn’t have a ton of plate appearances against lefties, only 28 but has produced a .555 wOBA, a .542 ISO with a 266 wRC+ and four of his eight home runs. This is clearly unsustainable but when he’s facing a weak lefty in Perez, I don’t think it’s out of the question he can pile on these career numbers.
Save Big by Drafting
Michael Conforto, New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, $3,700 — This slate has a lot of value that’ll help jam in two high priced pitchers. Conforto is one of my favorite plays at $3,700 against Chase Anderson ($6,200). It’s amazing to me that Anderson is still in a major league rotation and yet, here we are. Last season against lefties, Anderson posted a putrid .431 wOBA with a 6.62 FIP and five of the 11 home runs he allowed. Conforto has thrived against righties, especially on the road. While the power wasn’t present as much last year, Conforto still had a .415 wOBA and a 166 wRC+.
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