The 85th Masters Tournament cannot come soon enough. At this point, you’ve probably read, watched, listened and consumed more content than any other tournament leading up to this week. Golfers and narratives are getting pumped to over-exuberance, which means finding the correct pivot plays is paramount to winning big this week.
Eighty-eight golfers make up the field, and the top 50 and ties will make the cut. The cut rules here equate to a high percentage of the field making the weekend, which means rostering the winner and getting six of six through weekend is required. If you’re looking to take down the Milly Maker, you’ll also need some low-rostered gems who have a high ceiling here.
Course history, current form or your favorite golf tout has pumped up the projected DraftKings ownership for individual golfers throughout the week. This article will look at the projected chalk and pivot in each significant salary range when entering lineups in GPPs on DraftKings.
For a full course preview and who I like in the betting market, please refer to the DraftKings Preview article. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
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$10,000+ Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Justin Thomas ($10,600)
Pivot: Rory McIlroy ($10,200)
A win at TPC Sawgrass and a fourth-place finish here in November are a couple of reasons why Thomas is projecting to be the highest-rostered golfer this week. Still, there isn’t a definite favorite that is setting the pace in this range. DJ, Bryson and Xander failed to advance out of the group stage at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, Rahm is coming in after the birth of his first child, Rory hasn’t won since the WGC-HSBC back in November of 2019 and JT went through a minor slump before winning THE PLAYERS. Still, the one player you should consider “buying the dip” on this week is Rory. Other than his two recent MCs this season, he hasn’t finished worse than 21st. The expectations we have and he holds himself to are higher than most golfers, and the rhetoric on Rory before November’s Masters was similar to this week: “What’s wrong with Rory?” He ending up responding with a top 5 then and could be in line for a similar or better finish this week. Since 2015, he’s amassed three top fives and two top 10s at Augusta, which is what you want to see if you’re rostering someone like Rory, who currently isn’t playing his best.
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$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Jordan Spieth ($9,400)
Pivot: Tony Finau ($9,100)
Spieth’s win last week will undoubtedly make him the most popular in this range and maybe in the tournament. Conversely, Finau has fallen out of the industry’s collective favor, missing the cut at THE PLAYERS when rostered in 23.7% of GPP lineups and missing last weekend in San Antonio when he was in 17.4% of GPP lineups. Being priced near Brooks Koepka ($9,200) and Jordan Spieth ($9,400), coupled with his poor play over the past couple of starts, leads to Finau being a potential pivot if he can find form at a course he’s done well at in the past. It wasn’t too long ago he finished with back-to-back second-place finishes at Torrey Pines and Riviera CC, but it seems no one is looking to the 13th-ranked golfer as value at his price. Sure, his driver has been off the last couple of starts, but this week will be Finau’s fourth Masters, and he only needs to finish inside the top 5 to be a good play. He’s already finished with a top 10, a top 5 here and ranks fifth in DraftKings scoring over his previous 24 rounds. Finau may be too risky for some, and if that’s the case, go down to Webb Simpson ($9,000), who’s been fantastic here over his past two starts and is one of the best iron and short-game players in this range.
$7,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Paul Casey ($7,700)
Pivot: Justin Rose ($7,200)
This year’s Masters could boast the best contingent of Englishmen Augusta has seen and Paul Casey is leading the pack in this group sentiment. Casey is projecting to be the highest-rostered golfer in this range, and fading a guy who’s forecasting to be in 20 percent of GPP lineups will be pretty easy with all the value around him. Rose is on the shortlist of pivots off Casey this week, especially with how well he plays here. Since 2016, only four golfers rank higher than Rose in SG: Total and three of those golfers are above $10,000. Also, give Si Woo Kim ($6,700) a look if you’re venturing below $7,000. A winner already this season, Si Woo also plays Augusta National well, finishing inside the top 25 in his past three starts.
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