Things are getting started early on Wednesday with only two of the scheduled 15 games having an expected first pitch after 6:00 p.m. ET. Still, that’s fine in the grand scheme of things. There’s no harm in making some money before the sun even sets, right?
Let’s take a look at a few of my favorite bets on a jam-packed MLB slate.
While the Mets’ bats came alive in Tuesday’s victory over the Phillies, this pitching matchup is simply too lopsided to ignore. Aaron Nola will take the mound for Philadelphia on Wednesday, fresh off an impressive Opening Day performance. Meanwhile, New York will send out David Peterson, a soft-tossing LHP who certainly had his fair share of issues in 2020. To wit, the 25-year-old posted an ugly 5.11 xFIP over 49.2 innings, mainly due to an inflated 11.7% walk rate. This Phillies lineup is far too dangerous for charity, especially when it comes to southpaws. Last season, a very similar roster finished fifth in baseball in ISO (.209) and wOBA (.350) within the split. I believe they’ll carry over that success on Wednesday.
Team Total: Rangers UN 3.5 (-129)
This all comes down to lineup construction and Hyun Jin Ryu. Not that Texas has a lot of elite bats to choose from, but a majority of the team’s best offensive pieces happen to be left-handed, including Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe and David Dahl. So, when the team faces an LHP — as it did on Monday with Steven Matz — Chris Woodward has been content to leave those gentlemen in the lineup. That might not prove to be the best strategy against Ryu, who held the 229 LHBs he faced in 2019 and 2020 to a paltry .231 wOBA — the lowest qualified mark in the league. Heck, even if you don’t want to get fancy with splits, Ryu owns a 2.32 ERA dating back to the beginning of 2018. Only Jacob deGrom has been better at suppressing runs over the same span.
This season the Mariners have decided to use a six-man rotation in April. While there are definite advantages to that system, especially with a group of young pitchers, it also means that Seattle doesn’t just have a fifth-best starter, they have a sixth-best starter. That man is Justin Dunn and he had a terrible season in 2020. Thanks to an atrocious opponent exit velocity (92.0) and an even worse walk rate (15.7%), Dunn finished his 10 outings with an expected ERA, FIP and xFIP all above 6.00. Combine that with the fact that the Mariners are slashing just .193/.303/.317 through five games with reigning AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis on the IL, and you’ve got the recipe for a Chicago sweep.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.