The Canadiens and Leafs look like they’ll both be starting a couple of hot goalies here in Jake Allen ($7,500 - see below) and Jack Campbell ($8,100). Allen comes in sporting a .924 save percentage over his last 10 starts while Campbell is a perfect 9-0 in nine starts this season and is sporting a .944 save percentage. The Canadiens have looked improved since their COVID hiatus and held another high-powered offense in the Oilers to just two goals in two games during their last two meetings. With the six-handle and two solid goalies on tap, the under seems like the side to be on.
Fiala comes in averaging 2.7 SOG over his last 10 games and is averaging 4.5 SOG over his last four games. A juggle in lines has led to more production from him of late and the winger generally enjoys firing the puck with impunity when he’s in this kind of form. The Avs don’t allow a ton of shots, but we’re getting good odds here to take the over on a mark he’s easily surpassed in four straight games.
Top Line Stacks
Arizona Coyotes at L.A. Kings
Nick Schmaltz ($4,000) - Michael Bunting ($3,200) - Conor Garland (5,800)
The Coyotes’ top-line is coming off a massive night against the Kings and the stage seems set for this cheap trio to keep producing. Michael Bunting has been a solid addition to the Coyotes’ top-6 and landed a hat trick in his last game against the Kings. He’s also averaging 3.0 SOG in four games and comes in incredibly cheap for a player who has played over 17 minutes in each of the last three games. Bunting’s addition has also helped both of his linemates as well as Garland and Schmaltz both come in averaging a point-per-game over their last four starts.
The Kings have been on a terrible slide of late, losing seven of their last eight games and have allowed the 10th-most shots per game in the entire league. The Kings have also been allowing a ton more scoring chances of late and have now given up the ninth-most on the season. With a couple of bigger names on the slate, using this value trio in a terrific matchup again makes a lot of sense.
Superstar to Target
Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild ($8,600)
We have a couple of the premier studs on this small four-game slate as both MacKinnon and Auston Matthews ($9,000) will be on the ice today. Matthews has six goals in his last six games but the cheaper MacKinnon has been on a roll himself. The center is averaging 18.4 DKFP over his last 10 starts and his team has been absolutely steamrolling people of late. The Avs have now moved into first in goals scored per game at 3.6 and rank first by a country mile in expected goal rate (xGF%) as well.
Funnily enough, MacKinnon has been grabbing most of his points in small bunches, and has only nabbed three or more points twice in his last 10 games. He’s still averaging right around 4.0 SOG though over that span, and you have to figure a slate-breaking kind of night is likely on tap for the Avs’ captain soon. The Wild have allowed more scoring chances than normal of late and gave up five to the Avs in the first game of this series. I like targeting MacKinnon for a big night here as the potential for him to single-handedly add more room between COL and MIN in the standings tonight definitely exists.
Value on Offense
Kevin Fiala, Minnesota Wild vs. Colorado Avalanche ($5,200)
Fiala had a great run to end last season—one where he eventually ended up with 54 points in 64 games—and is in the middle of another heater here. Fiala enters with seven points over his last six games and has scored 11.0 or more DKFP in each of his last five starts. He’s always been a higher volume shooter but his pace has picked up over the last three games after getting moved onto a line with Victor Rask ($2,600)—and he enters averaging 4.75 SOG in his last three games. Despite the Avs’ defensive prowess, the low-$5K price here is worth targeting as he’s been over-performing this level for over a week now.
Mike Hoffman, St. Louis Blues vs. Vegas Golden Knights ($3,700)
Hoffman has been a bit of a disappointment for the Blues this year, as they’ve had trouble finding a proper spot for him in the lineup. With their offense in the absolute doldrums of late though, he’s seen some time on the de facto top-line alongside Ryan O’Reilly ($5,700) and David Perron ($6,600) and continues to get power-play exposure as well. We don’t have a ton of skaters to choose from in this range today but Hoffman makes for a nice pivot off Andre Burakovsky ($3,900) in large GPPs, who should be popular in his own right at this price given the Avs’ recent surge.
Jake Allen, Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs ($7,500)
As mentioned above under props/bets, Allen has been in great form for the Canadiens most of the season. The former STL Blue has excelled in the quasi-backup role and has averaged 14.8 DKFP over his last 10 starts, despite his team slumping in front of him for much of that span. The Canadiens look rejuvenated after the break though and are catching the Leafs coming home after a long road trip. Despite the Canadiens sitting as +136 underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook, Allen makes for a good GPP target and is already confirmed as the starter with Carey Price out due to injury.
Adin Hill, Arizona Coyotes at L.A. Kings ($7,700)
Hill has done well to hold down the fort for the Coyotes, who are still without their top-two goalies due to injuries. Hill’s not only won six of his last seven starts but he’s posted pretty solid numbers in doing so, and has now stopped 81 of the last 87 shots he’s faced. The Coyotes come in as small underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook tonight but the Kings have lost seven of their last eight games and are trending in the exact wrong direction, especially on offense where they rank 27th in xGF%. Hill again makes for a good sub-$8K target here assuming he gets confirmed as the starter for this late start today.
Value on Defense
Sean Walker, L.A. Kings vs. Arizona Coyotes ($3,600)
Walker has seen his ice time increase over the last little stretch as he’s moved into a top-4 role for LA, who is starved for depth in the back-end of their defensive core. While he’s not a huge points producer, Walker has been getting some PP2 exposure for the Kings of late as well and it’s resulted in increased SOG production, as he enters having nabbed three or more SOG in each of his last three games. There’s not much downside to targeting Walker at this price as he’s been grabbing those cheap SOG and blocked shots points more regularly of late and been getting better power-play exposure as well for upside purposes.
Alex Goligoski, Arizona Coyotes at L.A. Kings ($3,700)
You can pay up for the Coyotes’ top D-man (see below), but if you need to save money there’s no harm in going back to the well with Goligoski, who has been a staple of this section every time he’s been on the slate of late. The veteran is playing big minutes (over 22 minutes per night) and now has points in five straight games. He’s getting PP1 exposure alongside the alluded to Jakob Chychrun ($5,900), which really boosts his upside and makes him an elite value play when his salary is under $4K.
Jakob Chychrun, Arizona Coyotes at L.A. Kings ($5,900)
Chychrun has really taken over as the alpha in the Coyotes’ defensive core this season. The American comes in averaging over 23.0 minutes per night and has been one of the most productive defensemen in the league from a points per minute basis in 2021. On top of 27 points in 39 games, he’s also averaging a stout 3.1 SOG and 1.4 blocked shots over his last 10 games. He comes into this game with the Kings in absolute fire-form with five points and three goals in his last two games (he nailed a hat trick against ANH two games ago). The Kings shouldn’t scare anyone right now and have been giving up more scoring chances than normal of late, as their lack of depth on defense has started to catch up to them. At under $6K in price, Chychrun makes almost too much sense here as a DFS target on this short four-game slate.
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