The name of this article is MLB Best Bets. So I will give you my best bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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This is the tale of two teams going in the complete opposite directions, even from a betting standpoint. After the win against the Athletics last night, the Astros are a PERFECT 7-0 on the run line and covering by an average of +4.6 runs. Only the Reds are covering by more than four runs on the run line at +4.2 runs. Meanwhile, the Athletics have been the WORST team on the run line at 1-7 and are failing to cover by an average of -4.6 runs. It makes perfect sense, as the A’s are averaging just 2.3 runs per game, which is the worst average in the league.
Taking the mound for the ‘Stros will be Lance McCullers, who already shut down the A’s in his first start. Through five innings, McCullers allowed just one run on two hits while striking out seven. The Astros would cruise to an easy win in that game 9-1. Those seven runs have helped pad the average number of runs per game scored by this team, which currently sits at 7.2 (2nd). All in all, this is a fantastic way to get plus money on the Astros to win, especially when you consider the moneyline is set at -180.
So you may look at this bet and think “Why the hell would I want to take the Indians over 5.5 runs after they only managed one against Julio Teheran six days ago?” Well, I’m glad you asked young chap.
If you look at the numbers for Teheran in that start, he was so incredibly lucky in that game. Sure, he only allowed one run on four hits but peel it back some more. His FIP for that game was a 6.42. If you’re not familiar with FIP, the definition states “FIP is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time.” So, taking that sentiment, his FIP was MASSIVELY different from his ERA, which is an immediate red flag. He also gave up a 50% hard-hit rate, meaning that half of the balls in play were hard contact. Another red flag.
Getting plus money on this play is one I like a lot. The Tigers bullpen has also been a disaster thus far, producing a FIP of 6.02, which is the third-highest in the league. While the Indians aren’t crushing the ball at the moment, it’s easy to see that the damage could have been much more than the outcome.
The Reds have been one of the biggest surprises of the season thus far and currently boast a 5-1 record while sitting pretty atop the NL Central. Tonight, they face off against a struggling Diamondbacks team that is averaging just 3.5 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Reds offensive explosion continues, having scored the most runs in the league and averaging 9.5 per game. It’s quite obvious that it’s an unsustainable number but I have zero issue with riding the hot wave while we can.
On the mound for the D-Backs is Taylor Widener, who pitched 12 games in relief last season and had a 6.49 FIP, a 20.8 K%, 12.5% BB% and a 37.3% hard-hit rate. He had some really good numbers in the minors but at least in the 13 games he’s appeared in as a major leaguer, they haven’t exactly carried over. Give me the hot hitting Reds for the win.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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