It’s Saturday, but more importantly, it’s May! The weekend and a new month, what a scene. We’ve got an awesome 15-game slate on the diamond, including some spicy division rivalries. I’ve got my eye on quite a few bets today, but have narrowed it down to three. With that in mind, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Twins ... at home ... against a lefty? At this price? Sign me up right now. Minnesota’s sporting a 109 wRC+ against left-handers, with some absolute boppers in that lineup including Nelson Cruz, who mashes southpaws. Danny Duffy, meanwhile, has been cruising for a bruising all year long. He’s sporting a ridiculous Jacob deGrom-like 0.39 ERA, but his expected ERA of 3.96 indicates he’s had an inordinate amount of luck. He’s given up contact of 95 mph or more at a stupid 43.1% clip and has allowed five barrels in four starts. That would generally lead to at least a few runs — particularly the barrels — but that hasn’t been the case so far. Duffy should get roughed up by these bats.
We just went through this with Jesús Luzardo and Baltimore last week, where he allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks against the Orioles in a loss. I am betting on a repeat here, considering Luzardo’s never impressed me once in his young career, posting a 4.12 ERA with a 4.27 xERA last season and following that up with some clunkers in 2021. Cedric Mullins has led one of the hottest offenses in the league over the past couple of weeks and the Orioles should be plenty capable of getting to Luzardo again. On the other hand, Matt Harvey’s taken his walk rate all the way down to around 5% and has been mighty impressive in the early going. I can’t believe I’m betting on him, but here we are.
You might as well crown me the Blake Snell fader right now. This price is absolutely outrageous, considering Snell’s been bad now for two seasons. I should use that term gently since he’s still one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game and possesses the ability to go out and throw seven shutout innings at any given moment. That said, he’s facing a Giants team that is seventh in wRC+ over the past week and incredibly hot at the plate. He’s also posted a 4.13 xERA this year after a 4.72 xERA last season, and walked four Giants in a loss to San Francisco earlier this season. His season has been rocky, and walks have been a huge issue. I think things continue to go south for Snell here against a hungry Giants side.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.