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Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards vs. Dallas Mavericks $11,000
Westbrook’s night was cut short Friday, with the Wizards running away with a 29-point blowout win over the Cavs. Still, the point guard recorded another triple-double and finished with 51 DKFP in only 31 minutes of work. Heading to Dallas tonight to face Luka Doncic and company, another blowout is highly unlikely, with the Mavs only five-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, and Westbrook should see big minutes with the Wizards looking to improve their seed in the East with only nine games remaining.
Before Friday night, Washington played two very competitive games that were decided by an average of six points, and the nature of these contests pushed Westbrook to 41.5 minutes per game, translating to an elite 67.1 DKFP per game for the former MVP. The bottom line is with the Wizards treating every game like a must-win right now, Westbrook is a must-play, and his salary is simply too low for his ridiculous floor and ceiling.
Other Options: Stephen Curry ($10,600), Kevin Porter Jr. ($7,400), Lonzo Ball ($7,200)
Malachi Flynn, Toronto Raptors vs. Utah Jazz, $4,300
Thursday night, Flynn started in place of Fred VanVleet (hip) and responded with 29.5 DKFP against the Nuggets. The rookie finished with a 22.3% usage rate and saw 32.1 minutes. Flynn should find himself in a nearly identical role Saturday, with VanVleet returning, but Kyle Lowry being rested.
Going against the Jazz isn’t ideal (fourth in defensive efficiency), but they are expected to remain without Mike Conley (hamstring), which certainly helps Flynn. This season, the veteran ranks second in real defensive plus/minus of 91 eligible point guards. No matter the outcome of this game, Nick Nurse should push Flynn over 30 minutes, and when the rookie has reached that mark this season, he is averaging 34.3 DKFP per game.
Other Options: T.J. McConnell ($5,300), Killian Hayes ($4,600), Trey Burke ($3,600)
Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat, $8,100
Darius Garland sprained his ankle during last night’s loss to the Wizards and did not return. With Garland inactive on Saturday, Sexton will see an upgrade to his workload. Due to a team-high 32.4% usage rate, Sexton has generated 38.9 DKFP per game in four contests sans Garland this year.
As a top-10 defense this season, Miami obviously presents a difficult matchup, but the expanded role for Sexton trumps this concern, especially with this game in Cleveland. So far in 2020-21, the 22-year-old is averaging 4.0 more DKFP when at home compared to when traveling on the road.
Other Options: Paul George ($10,000, if Kawhi Leonard is out), Caris LeVert ($8,300, better if Malcolm Brogdon is out)
Frank Jackson, Detroit Pistons vs. Charlotte Hornets, $3,900
In the absences of Mason Plumlee (rest), Jerami Grant (rest), Cory Joseph (ankle), Rodney McGruder (elbow), Wayne Ellington (rest) and Dennis Smith Jr. (knee), Jackson collected 24.25 DKFP in 27 minutes on Thursday night vs. the Mavs. All of these players have already been ruled out for Saturday night, along with Jahlil Okafor (personal), while Hamidou Diallo (doubtful) is also expected to be unavailable.
With the Pistons so shorthanded, Jackson should receive close to 30 minutes off the bench against the Hornets, firmly putting him in the value play conversation for Saturday night. In the four contests Joseph, Plumlee and Grant have missed this season, Jackson is providing 24.6 DKFP per game.
Other Options: D’Angelo Russell ($6,900), Jalen Brunson ($5,100), De’ Anthony Melton ($4,100, if Grayson Allen is out)
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks vs. Washington Wizards, $10,900
After missing Thursday night’s win over the Pistons, Doncic (elbow) will be back in the lineup for Saturday night’s matchup with the Wizards. While Washington has improved defensively, ranking third in defensive rating over their past 10, they are still the fastest club in the NBA at this time. Obviously, uptempo matchups are optimal for a playmaker like Doncic, and he was playing very well before the elbow injury, scoring 56 DKFP per game in his past 10 starts.
Plus, this tilt is in Dallas, and Doncic has presented dramatic home/away splits this season, scoring 5.1 more DKFP per game at American Airlines Arena. While Westbrook is the better value and spend for cash games tonight, Doncic isn’t far behind and his small forward eligibility is very friendly for roster construction.
Other Options: Anthony Edwards ($7,400), Joe Ingles ($7,100), OG Anunoby ($7,000)
Saddiq Bey, Detroit Pistons vs. Charlotte Hornets, $5,200
Bey is always a safe target when the Pistons are shorthanded. For the four instances that Plumlee, Grant and Joseph have been inactive collectively, Bey has supplied 29 DKFP with 35.3 minutes per game as Detroit’s starting small forward.
In this friendly spot against the Hornets, the rookie’s success should continue Saturday night. As they have been dealing with many key injuries, Charlotte has really struggled on defense, rating as the fifth weakest group in basketball over their past 10.
Other Options: Josh Jackson ($6,000), Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,900), Kent Bazemore ($4,600, if Kelly Oubre is out)
Kelly Olynyk, Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors, $7,300
Despite putting up great numbers recently, Olynyk should still come with depressed ownership tonight. This season-high price tag is going to make most DFS players hesitate, creating an excellent opportunity to gain leverage in GPPs. Fresh off a 53.25 DKFP outburst against the Bucks on Thursday, Olynyk is amassing 49.6 DKFP per game in his past four starts.
Danuel House (ankle) will be out tonight, solidifying Olynyk with a 35-40 minute role in this West matchup that sports a 231.5 over/under game total on DraftKings Sportsbook. In the four totals north of 230 points that he has suited up for since joining the Rockets, Olynyk has contributed 46.75 DKFP per game.
Other Options: Michael Porter Jr. ($8,200), Miles Bridges ($7,300), Draymond Green ($7,200)
Juancho Hernangomez, Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Pelicans, $3,500
Very quietly, Hernangomez has been making solid contributions off the bench for Minnesota, chipping with 22 DKFP per game across their past five. The stretch four is amassing 0.9 DKFP per minute this season and should see roughly 20 minutes in this fantasy-friendly setting vs. the Pelicans.
Via DraftKings Sportsbook, this contest’s 238 point O/U game total is easily the high point of this massive 10-game slate, and the spread is also very tight, with New Orleans only four-point favorites. Having exposure to this tilt is a must tonight, and Hernangomez is a sharp cheap way to attack at only $3,500.
Other Options: Darius Bazley ($6,400), Marcus Morris ($6,100, if Kawhi Leonard is out), Oshae Brissett ($5,900, if Domantas Sabonis and Goga Bitadze are out), Moritz Wagner ($3,300, if Chuma Okeke is out)
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Pelicans, $10,300
The Pelicans have been strong at defending center this season, but this is all thanks to Steven Adams, who will be out tonight with a toe injury. Starting in his place is Guillermo Hernangomez (below), who has been one of the worst defensive centers in the NBA throughout his career. He doesn’t have a prayer at slowing down Towns, and the center is an awesome expensive spend in this massive total.
Whenever the star has competed in a total above 230 points this season, KAT has been a monster with 50.4 DKFP per game.
Other Options: Nikola Jokic ($10,700), Zion Williamson ($9,900), Christian Wood ($8,700), Clint Capela ($8,600)
Guillermo Hernangomez, New Orleans Pelicans vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, $4,800
While I fully expect Hernangomez’s terrible defense to get exposed by Towns tonight, that doesn’t mean we can’t roster him for DFS. The center scores a productive 1.1 DKFP per minute and has provided 28.25 DKFP per game in the six Adams has been absent for.
Towns is no defensive stopper himself, with the Wolves allowing the most DKFP per game to opposing centers this season, and Hernangomez is a value that can’t be ignored for Saturday night’s full card.
Other Options: PJ Washington ($6,700), Isaiah Stewart ($6,500), Khem Birch ($5,300), Mo Bamba ($5,000)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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