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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for May 10

Steve Buchanan breaks down Monday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

I moved over the weekend so I’m tired and grumpy. So expect a grumpy article, which is honestly a normal article. Business as usual!

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.


DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Monday’s Padres-Rockies game has been postponed due to inclement weather and will be made up as part of a doubleheader on Wednesday.

Dinelson Lamet, $8,100, San Diego Padres (-170) at Colorado Rockies (+150)— Lamet has able to make it through his last “start” last week against the Pirates, going only two innings allowing no runs on four hits and throwing 30 pitches. He’s expected to open once again and then giving way to Ryan Weathers ($7,100). Lamet should be off fantasy radars until he’s stretched out but it doesn’t stop the Padres from being the biggest favorites on this slate.

The Padres are 15-13 when favored this season and 7-5 as road favorites. They face a Rockies team that have started to pick it up a bit offensively, averaging 4.4 runs over their last five games. With that said, at Coors Field, this team only has an 86 wRC+, which is one of the lowest in the league. It’s hard to trust this team, especially with the idea that Weathers will pitch the bulk of the innings. Against lefties, the Rockies only have a .149 ISO and an 87 wRC+.

Other notable favorite: Alex Wood ($9,800; -145) vs. Texas Rangers


Highest Projected Total

Los Angeles Angels (+110; 4.5 runs) at Houston Astros (-130; 4.5 runs) 9.5 runs — The Padres and Rockies is the highest projected game on this slate at 10 runs but let’s talk about this Angels and Astros game. The Astros are favored in this one going up against Jose Suarez ($5,600), who is being recalled from Triple-A.

In 17 starts, Suarez has a .403 wOBA, a 6.95 FIP, a 2.6 HR/9 and a 9.4% BB%. This lefty has shown nothing promising while in the majors and should get shelled against a very good Astros team against lefties. This team has a .325 wOBA with a .149 ISO and a 115 wRC+. It’s hard to imagine Suarez is in this game long even if he pitches well. This Angels bullpen has really been struggling lately, which makes me like this Astros stack even more. Over the past week, the Angels relievers have combined to throw 27 2/3 innings (6th) with a 5.70 FIP (3rd) a 1.3 HR/9 (9th) and a 7.4 BB/9 (1st).


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Hidden Ball Trick [$50K to 1st]


Weather Notes

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies - It’s going to be a cold, rainy night in Colorado. This could be a disruptive night for this game and certainly not ideal for hitting. Keep an eye on this one.


Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Mitch Keller, .382, 4.72
Antonio Senzatela, .351, 4.80

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Gibson, .203, 2.57
Jeff Hoffman, .330, 489


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Antonio Senzatela, .398, 5.77
Luke Weaver, .368, 4.68
Jeff Hoffman, .350, 4.92

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Alex Wood, .187, 2.42
Kyle Gibson, .283, 3.32
Martin Perez, .319, 3.35


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Luis Garcia, Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels, $8,400 — This is a really, really tough slate for pitching. I landed on Garcia because this Angels team has been striking out a lot lately. Over the past week they have a 25.6% K%, which ranks eighth over that span. This normally isn’t a team that strikes out a ton but this is how thin the options are at pitcher. Garcia has a 10.2 K/9 and a 14.2% swing-and-miss rate through six appearances, showcasing a fastball and cutter primarily. You aren’t going to be blown away by many options on this slate, so Garcia is who I’m rolling with.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, $4,600 — Winker is crushing the ball this season and has double-digit fantasy points in five of his last 10 games. Righties have hardly been an issue for him, as Winker has a .516 wOBA, a .351 ISO and a 226 wRC+ so far. Now he has the luxury of facing Mitch Keller ($6,800), who has been destroyed by lefties. Since the beginning of last season, Keller has a .371 wOBA, a 6.56 FIP and a 1.5 HR/9 against them. With his shaky control and issues with home runs, Keller is a perfect pitcher to target against with someone like Winker.


Save Big by Drafting

Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants, $3,200 — I cannot believe that Garcia is still only $3,200. For someone that has at least 24 DKFP in three of his last six games, this man is locked in at the plate. He’s currently riding an eight-game hitting streak that’s seen him go 14-for-32 with four home runs, a double and 12 RBI. He has a tough matchup against a rejuvenated Alex Wood ($9,800) but Garcia has been smashing lefties. Garcia has a .389 wOBA with a .313 ISO and a 154 wRC+ against them. Truly at this low of a salary, this could easily be one of the best values on the slate.


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