Small MLB slate on Monday with low potential for pitchers duels. Here are my favorite MLB bets on DraftKings Sportsbook from what should be an offense-heavy day.
If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.
Yes, we’re going with strikeout extraordinaire Kyle Gibson — that’s how thin the pitching is on Monday’s slate.
All joking aside, this bet is more about the Giants than Gibson. San Francisco has the third-worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season (26.8%), trailing only Gibson’s team (27.8%) and the Tigers (28%). But despite the strikeouts, the Giants have shown power against righties (third in ISO). Their wOBA and OPS against right-handed pitching (top 10 in both) aren’t anything to scoff at either, but this is where Gibson has to do some work.
Ever since the Royals embarrassed him on Opening Day, Gibson has churned out six consecutive quality starts. In those six outings, he’s hit the over on Monday’s prop three times — including last time out (eight K’s) against a Twins lineup that’s top 10 in wOBA, OPS and ISO against right-handed pitchers and in the lower third in strikeout rate against righties. Gibson’s K/9 may only be 7.6, but his swinging strike rate (13.4%) is a smidge better than it was in 2019 when he posted an even 9.0 K/9. Also, he’s getting hitters to chase more than ever, and they’re missing those pitches outside the zone more frequently.
The Reds are second in wOBA, ISO and OPS against right-handed pitching. Mitch Keller doesn’t get hitters to swing and miss a ton. He may be coming off five scoreless innings vs. the Padres, but that’s only the fifth time he’s gotten through the fifth inning in six starts this season.
Tyler Mahle’s outing vs. the Cubs was also an outlier, except the inverse. That outing is the only time the Cincinnati righty has given up more than two runs in a start all season. He’s facing a Pittsburgh team that’s among the MLB’s worst in wOBA, ISO and OPS against right-handed pitching.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Monday’s Padres-Rockies game has been postponed due to inclement weather and will be made up as part of a doubleheader on Wednesday.
Believe it or not, Senzatela has only hit Monday’s over twice in four starts. That said, one of the outings he surrendered fewer than six hits, Senzatela got bounced before the third inning after giving up three home runs, a double and a single vs. the Dodgers. But he’s not facing Los Angeles Monday night. He’s facing a San Diego lineup that’s in the middle of the pack in wOBA and OPS against right-handed pitchers.
That said, a few Padres hitters have done well against Senzatela in the past. Wil Myers (10-for-16 lifetime vs. Senzatela), Manny Machado (5-for-13) and Eric Hosmer (5-for-16) each have an OPS north of .880 against Colorado’s starter in 15-plus plate appearances apiece. While Fernando Tatis Jr. (3-for-12) hasn’t done much with his chances vs. Senzatela, he has a 1.218 career OPS at Coors (11 games). This foursome could very well get the job done themselves on Monday.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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