Rory McIlroy finally returned to the winner’s circle this past Sunday, claiming his third career victory at Quail Hollow, which was his first PGA TOUR win in nearly two years. Now, before we head to Kiawah Island Golf Resort for the PGA Championship next week, the PGA TOUR will be making its way to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson.
This course has hosted two Korn Ferry Tour Championships, but this week will be the first time TPC Craig Ranch has been the site of a PGA TOUR event. This course was designed by Tom Weiskopf and is a standard par 72 that features Bentgrass greens. The Rowlett Creek comes into to play on 14 of the 18 holes, but most of the water gaps are small and aren’t much of a factor for the tee shots. Furthermore, there are minimal trees to worry about and this is a very wide open track that resembles a link styled venue. The four par fives all present great birdies opportunities, and capitalizing on these holes will be pivotal to climbing the leaderboard. As for the par fours, five of the ten fall between 450-500 yards, putting an emphasis on this range, and there are also two very short par fours that should be reachable in one shot by some of the longer hitters in this field. Hole six only measures out to 361 yards and hole 14 is only 330 yards, definitely presenting some eagle opportunities for bombers this week. Overall, I think we can safely expect some low scoring at TPC Craig Ranch, and when we are attacking a course blind with no previous data to rely on, it is a wise move to primarily focus on strong ball strikers.
The AT&T Byron Nelson is a full field of 156 players with a normal top-65 and ties cutline following the first 36 holes. World No. 1 Dustin Johnson withdrew Monday with a knee injury, but still, 11 of the top-30 ranked players in the world will tee it up in McKinney this week. While this is a very top heavy field, we still need to find values to attack at the bottom of the player pool on DraftKings, and below I have featured four of my favorite golfers that cost less than $7,500 for the Byron Nelson.
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Brandt Snedeker, $7,400
Snedeker is a master on Bentgrass greens and he heads to TPC Craig Ranch in terrific form. The veteran has made four of his past five cuts, including a T6 at the Valero Texas Open and a T11 at the Valspar. He has amassed positive strokes T2G in three consecutive starts and Snedeker also ranks 3rd in BOB% over this time.
Plus, the course manger ranks 8th in total strokes gained when we analyze all of these golfer’s last 50 rounds on par 72s that are home to Bentgrass greens. Snedeker possesses the best odds to win the Byron Nelson on DraftKings Sportsbook of all the players under $7,500 this week, and the never popular 40-year-old shouldn’t be a common name in GPPs.
Jhonattan Vegas, $7,200
Vegas is a very attractive value at this low price tag. After posting a T43 at Quail Hollow last week, the excellent ball striker has made eight of his past nine cuts. Over his last 12 rounds, Vegas ranks 12th in SGT2G, 14th in ball striking, 7th in SG OTT and 17th in SG on par fives.
Outside of his streaky putting, the bomber has all the tools to succeed at Craig Ranch, and if he can manage just an average week on the greens, Vegas is a real threat for a top-20 this weekend.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee, $6,900
Lee’s ball striking has been outstanding as of late. He has gained positive strokes T2G in four straight starts, leading him to four made cuts in a row. For a larger sample, Lee has been competing on the weekend in ten of his last 13 starts, and the 29-year-old has made six of his past eight cuts on par 72s, including two finishes inside the top-25.
His work on the greens has been ugly, ranking 137th in SGP over his last 12 rounds, but Lee’s T2G game is simply too compelling to ignore at this low of a cost.
Hank Lebioda, $6,900
Last week during his T51 at Quail Hollow, Lebioda put on a show with his ball striking, finishing 16th in SGT2G and 6th in SG APP at the difficult track. The week prior, Lebioda carded an impressive T13 at the Valspar, and over these eight rounds, he ranks 22nd in SG APP, 19th in SGT2G, 3rd in GIR and 3rd in bogeys avoided.
The Florida State product’s game is trending up right now and if he can carry this momentum over to the Craig Ranch, you have to like Lebioda’s chances of posting a solid finish at the par 72.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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