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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for May 11

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Kansas City Royals v Pittsburgh Pirates Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images

I don’t know who made the schedule to only be five games yesterday but thank goodness for Tuesday. 12 games on the schedule. We like that a lot more.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Walker Buehler, $9,800, Los Angeles Dodgers (-240) vs. Seattle Mariners (+150)— The Dodgers are big favorites tonight against the future American League West champion Seattle Mariners. Luckily, they’ll avoid Jarred Kelenic, who is expected to be called up Thursday and immediately hit four home runs in a game. As favorites, the Dodgers are 18-17 while the Mariners are 16-14 as underdogs.

Buehler will look to prevent the Dodgers from slipping back to .500 on the season. The Dodgers are in an uncharacteristic 2-8 slide, which includes a three-game sweep against the Cubs. Buehler has been showcasing excellent command and has brought his strikeout numbers back up to their normal level. His 3.00 FIP also shows that he’s been slightly better than his ERA indicates at 3.13. This is a free swinging Mariners team that has the eighth-highest K% in the league against righties at 25.4%. Despite the loaded slate, he should still continue to see plenty of attention as the second-most expensive option.

To be fair though, I’m not all that comfortable laying the juice to back this struggling team overall at -240, especially going against a lefty. The Dodgers have just a 85 wRC+, a .287 wOBA and a .132 ISO.

Other notable favorite: Dinelson Lamet ($7,400; -210) at Colorado Rockies


Highest Projected Total

San Diego Padres (-210; 5.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+175; 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs — This game was rained out last night and they’ll be dealing with that again here on Tuesday. We should see them play tonight at least but the conditions are once again less than ideal. Rainy and in the low 40’s, it’s not exactly weather you look to target. It’s currently unknown who will start for the Rockies but it could end up being Antonio Senzatela ($5,200) who was scheduled to go last night. This is a classic case where I’d be looking to take the under on what feels like an inflated 9.5 game total. It’s rare we get less than double-digits at Coors but this is where we’re at early Tuesday morning.

The over is only 9-8-1 at Coors this season, which isn’t all that impressive but makes sense with how bad this Rockies offense is. Even at home, THE ILLUSTRIOUS COORS FIELD, they only have an 86 wRC+, which is 26th in the league. At this rate, I’m more comfortable taking the over on the opposing team total and targeting that instead. I simply cannot trust the Rockies offense to do their part.


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Weather Notes

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies - Rain will be an issue once again but they SHOULD be able to play tonight. Expect a delay to start.


Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kenta Maeda, .420, 5.83
Antonio Senzatela, .351, 4.80
Walker Buehler, .343, 4.44

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
John Means, .179, 3.29
Dylan Cease, .212, 2.84
Marcus Stroman, .265, 3.28


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Antonio Senzatela, .398, 5.77
Chase Anderson, .364, 3.83
Jordan Montgomery, .351, 5.25

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
John Means, .195, 2.90
Walker Buehler, .228, 2.03
Pablo Lopez, .232, 3.25


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Seattle Mariners, $9,800 — For such a large slate, we don’t have a lot of “slam dunks” at the SP1 tonight. We have a lot of “nice” plays to choose from but none that particularly stand out. Buehler is indeed in one of the better matchups against the Mariners and should be able to rack up some strikeouts. This team has a 25.4% K% and struggle against the fastball and curveball, the two pitches Buehler has thrown the most. The Mariners rank 28th against the fastball and 25th against the curve. With a $500 discount to the most expensive pitcher in John Means ($10,300), who has a tougher than many would expect matchup against the Mets, I’ll roll with Buehler in this one.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, $5,300 — I feel as if Merrifield won’t draw a ton of attention despite being in a great matchup. While he’s not usually known for his power, Merrifield has been doing a little of everything, leading him to averaging 9.5 DKFP on the season. While he’s always been a base stealing threat, he’s already swiped 11 through 33 games, which is one away from his total in 2020 in 60 games. Against lefties, he has a .388 wOBA with a .216 ISO and a 151 wRC+. Against Matthew Boyd ($6,300), I like this spot a lot for him.


Save Big by Drafting

Kyle Schwarber, Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies, $3,700 — Schwarber is finally starting to show some life at the plate after a really slow start. He’s averaging 8.2 DKFP over his last five games, including two doubles, a home run and three RBI. Tonight, he faces off against Chase Anderson ($6,800) who continues to be roasted by lefties with a .328 wOBA, a 6.44 FIP and three of the four home runs he’s allowed. Schwarber has always been a power bat and in a matchup like this, we can hopefully see that on display.


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