The NBA regular season is winding down, and there is a massive 11-game slate on Tuesday. The action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:00 p.m. ET, so let’s dive into some of the top plays, strategies, and injuries to monitor heading into lineup lock.
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Worth Paying Up For: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns ($10,000)
Curry has a tough matchup tonight vs. the Suns, but he still stands out as one of the top studs on the slate. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.63 DKFP per minute over the past month, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Kelly Oubre. Curry has increased his usage rate by 5.9 percentage points in 13 games without Oubre this season, resulting in an average of 57.88 DKFP per game. You’ll definitely take that level of production at $10,000.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Malachi Flynn, Toronto Raptors vs. Los Angeles Clippers ($5,300)
Flynn hasn’t seen quite as many opportunities for the Raptors recently, but he should be thrust back into an expanded role on Tuesday. They’ve already ruled out Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby, and Chris Boucher is also listed as questionable. Flynn has played two games this season with Lowry, VanVleet, and Siakam out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 35.38 DraftKings points in those contests.
Worth Paying Up For: Evan Fournier, Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat ($5,400)
The Celtics play the Heat on Tuesday, and this game has massive playoff implications. The Heat currently own a two-game lead over the Celtics for the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference, and only the top six seeds are guaranteed spots in the postseason. In other words, the Celtics need to win the game to have any shot of avoiding the play-in tournament.
Unfortunately, they’re not going to be at full strength. Robert Williams has been ruled out with a toe injury, while Jaylen Brown is done for the season following wrist surgery. Fournier is one of the players who is going to have to pick up the slack. He’s done an admirable job of that recently, scoring at least 33.5 DKFP in each of his past four games, and he remains affordable at just $5,400.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Terence Davis, Sacramento Kings vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($5,300)
Davis is priced very similarly to Fournier, but he also deserves consideration. The Kings have been hit hard by injuries of late, and De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, and Harrison Barnes are all expected to miss tonight’s contest vs. the Thunder. That leaves plenty of playing time available for Davis, who has averaged 0.96 DKFP per minute over the past month. He’s returned value in each of his past nine games, and he’s scored at least 35.75 DKFP in his past two.
Worth Paying Up For: Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies ($10,800)
Doncic has struggled from a fantasy perspective recently, but there have been some extenuating circumstances. He’s played 23.2 minutes or less in each of his past two games, and not even Doncic is capable of paying off his salary in such limited playing time. He should return to his usual workload tonight vs. the Grizzlies, and he carries more upside than usual given the Mavericks’ injury situation. Kristaps Porzingis has already been ruled out, and Maxi Kleber is questionable.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Moe Harkless, Sacramento Kings vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($4,000)
Harkless has provided excellent value for the Kings recently. He’s returned value in four straight games, and he’s scored at least 29.25 DKFP in each of his past two. He’s expected to see around 30 minutes of playing time again on Tuesday, which makes him underpriced at just $4,000.
Worth Paying Up For: Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers vs. Philadelphia 76ers ($10,400)
Sabonis is more expensive than he’s ever been, so there is admittedly a bit of sticker shock with him at the moment. That said, it’s impossible to ignore his upside with Malcolm Brogdon out of the lineup. He’s scored at least 72.5 DKFP in four of his past six games, so he clearly has the ability to pay off this elevated price tag sans Brogdon. He’s capable of contributing in every category across the board, resulting in an average of 1.57 DKFP per minute over the past month.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks ($5,700)
There’s a chance that Jackson will rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, but he’s a strong option if he’s active. He has been tremendous since joining the lineup this season, averaging 1.22 DKFP per minute, and he’s scored at least 31.25 DKFP in each of his past three games. He’s coming off a season-high 27 minutes yesterday vs. the Pelicans, so his playing time is trending in the right direction, as well.
If JJJ is ruled out, guys like Kyle Anderson ($5,600) and Brandon Clarke ($3,400) would both enter the discussion as value options.
Worth Paying Up For: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers ($10,100)
If Embiid is in the lineup, he is going to crush the Pacers on Tuesday. It’s that simple. They’ve struggled against opposing centers all season, allowing the fifth-most DKFP per game to the position, and the Pacers’ frontcourt remains undermanned without Myles Turner. Embiid has also been on a tear recently, averaging 1.66 DKFP per minute over the past month, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 120.0 points is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Make sure to download the DK Live App for any updates on Embiid and the rest of Tuesday’s players.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Tristan Thompson, Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat ($4,600)
Thompson isn’t the sexiest DFS option, but he should be able to return value vs. the Heat. He’s the last big man left standing in Boston with Williams sidelined and Daniel Theis traded to the Bulls, so he should see more than 30 minutes vs. the Heat. Thompson has averaged 0.90 DKFP per minute this season, so he’s a very reasonable option at just $4,600.
Overall Lineup Strategy
Tuesday’s DFS slate is a bit different than what we’ve become accustomed to. There has been an abundance of value options recently – such is the life of the final month of the NBA season – but there aren’t a ton of appealing values at the moment. That could change as we get closer to lineup lock, but there aren’t nearly as many viable options in the sub $4,000 range as usual.
That means a more balanced approach is how I’m leaning at the moment. I still want to get in Curry and either Sabonis or Embiid, but three studs is off the table as things stand currently. Going with Curry and Embiid leaves you with an average of just under $5,000 for your remaining roster spots, which is plenty to work with.
Flynn stands out as the easiest value to lock into your lineup, and Fournier and Davis are also excellent options. Chimezie Metu ($3,400) also stands out as arguably the best punt play on the slate given his average of 0.93 DKFP per minute over the past month, so he’s useful if you need a big salary saver.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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