The AT&T Byron Nelson will be on a new course this week, TPC Craig Ranch, and another attempt to have an American-style links course on the PGA TOUR schedule.
The board is quite top-heavy for the tournament one week before the PGA Championship - 16 of the top 50 are in attendance this week. A tournament with a bevy of longshot winners in previous years will now have a lot of win equity tethered to the top of the board, which presents some challenges when trying to source for value. Dustin Johnson’s recent WD also shifted the top of the board shorter, which means some golfers in the +2000 range are now in the teens.
The average winning odds at Trinity Forest in 2018 and 2019 was +8750. The average winning odds for the five years previous at the Four Seasons was +18000, with the longest being Steve Bowditch at +50000 in 2015 and Sergio Garcia with the shortest odds +2500 in 2016.
As mentioned in the DraftKings Preview article, Scheffler has a fair amount of experience competing and playing well in Texas, making this number a little more interesting than if the tournament was elsewhere. His number drifted down from earlier in the week thanks to the Johnson WD, but Scottie still has a ton of appeal with how well he’s striking the ball. Sure, his number with a two in front of it is more desirable, but this is the same guy who just finished second at the Match Play at Austin CC and competed with this type of field down the stretch in last year’s FedExCup Playoffs. If you feel like his odds are too short, which is understandable, Will Zalatoris (+2800) is someone to consider. He was featured in this article last week and ended up missing the cut. Still, the Texas-native is hitting the ball great, and last week’s MC might have been the outlier, something he rarely does.
Like Scottie above, Day was also featured in the preview article and is someone to consider this week. With back-to-back tournaments gaining with his irons, Day’s presents some value in this range if he can turn around his putting, which is usually the best part of his game. Australians have a knack for Texas golf, and Day’s won in this state before at the 2016 Match Play.
Let’s make it three for three of the guys mentioned in the preview article making their way over to the betting column. Kang hasn’t played well, missing his last two cuts on TOUR and finishing no better than 59th in his previous dozen tournaments. Still, Kang presents some value this week with how well he plays in Texas. An Irving, Texas, resident, Kang has his best performances in the Lonestar State, winning this tournament at Trinity Forest in 2019 and finishing second at the 2017 Shell Houston Open.
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