The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.
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1. Martin Truex Jr. ($11,900) - Over the last two seasons, Truex has been the best driver in the high horsepower, low downforce package. Last week at Darlington, he put on a clinic. Truex nearly won the first Dover race last season, but a lap car, Aric Almirola, slowed Truex down and opened the door for a Denny Hamlin victory.
2. Kyle Larson ($11,500) - He didn’t win and he didn’t lead the most laps last week. That’s because Larson had to drive through the field twice at a track where passing doesn’t happen. Anyone that watched the laps knows that Larson is the best driver with the best car this season.
3. Denny Hamlin ($11,100) - His car’s setup was off last week, but Hamlin still managed to have the second-best average running position. He had the best car in the first Dover race last season, and he was a contender in the Sunday race until a loose lug nut required a green flag pit stop during stage 3.
4. Joey Logano ($9,500) - A green flag penalty during stage 3 ruined a top 3 day for Logano last week at Darlington. He continues to impress in the high horsepower, low downforce races, but he always seems just a small step behind the elite at these tracks.
5. Kevin Harvick ($9,800) - As soon as DFS players give up on Harvick, he’ll hit. Harvick’s team just can’t get the setup right this season. At Dover last season, Harvick dominated the race on Sunday, and possibly could have dominated in the first race, but he had a track bar issue.
6. Kyle Busch ($10,000) - Is the “Don’t play Kyle Busch in the spring Dover race” still a thing? Last season, there wasn’t a spring race. In 2019, he finished 10th and had a decent race. In the years before that, his results are brutal.
7. Ryan Blaney ($8,400) - In the second Dover race, Blaney took a chance and did not pit during the competition caution. He couldn’t hang on during stage 3, but his gamble worked and Blaney led 37 laps.
8. Christopher Bell ($8,000) - DFS NASCAR can be the worst. Christopher Bell was in 5th place with five laps remaining last week, but he had to pit for a flat tire. Bell and JGR have been excellent at low downforce, high horsepower tracks.
9. Alex Bowman ($9,200) - In the high downforce package, Alex Bowman was amazing at Dover. When he struggled in the Saturday Dover race, it was believed that his excellence was package related. On Sunday, Bowman proved that it wasn’t package-related. His poor Saturday race was due to serious race damage.
10. Brad Keselowski ($10,300) - The #2 car is struggling this season. Last season, Keselowski ran the second-most laps inside the top 5 in low downforce races. He dominated Richmond and New Hampshire. This season, it’s been the opposite. He is struggling with his setup in low downforce races, and he has been a contender in the high downforce races.
11. Chase Elliott ($10,700) - In the Saturday Dover race last season, Elliott had a good car, but struggled to overcome track position. In the Sunday race, he wrecked out early. This season, Elliott has been the worst Hendrick driver.
12. Aric Almirola ($8,200) - How much money has Aric Almirola cost DFS players this season? Erik Jones did this to DFS players frequently last season. Almirola has been very good at Dover over his career, and as soon as his bad luck goes away, he will be in the optimal lineup.
13. Kurt Busch ($8,700) - Aric Almirola will likely draw more ownership at a lower price, but some DFS players will try to fit in both. Busch and Almirola haven’t been performing poorly, it really has been bad luck and bad luck only.
14. William Byron ($8,900) - If Larson and Truex were not magical last week, then DFS NASCAR players would be talking about Byron. Last season, his team missed the setup for the first Dover race, and Byron was furious. The next day, they nailed the setup, and Byron loved his team.
15. Austin Dillon ($7,400) - It’s hard to trust Austin Dillon because he’s just not a very good race car driver. His equipment has improved over the last season, but the driver has not now shown the same growth. Dillon was very strong on long runs in the second Dover race last season.
16. Ross Chastain ($6,500) - Pretend it’s 2016. Would you play Jamie McMurray for $6,500 with a 19th place starting position? Chastain isn’t much different than McMurray in a Chip Ganassi car. The biggest difference is that Chastain has a lower floor due to his aggression, but he’s starting to get that under control.
17. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,100) - Last week was hot and slick as predicted, but it was also Darlington. It’s a one groove around the top track, and Stenhouse did not have the setup. A top groove comes in at Dover, and Stenhouse’s versatility comes into play. He finished 10th in the first Dover race, but wrecked at the very beginning of the second Dover race.
18. Erik Jones ($7,200) - Richard Petty Motorsports can have good days. They weren’t particularly lucky last week. They took a chance with an old school set up at one of Jones’ favorite tracks. They might as well roll the dice again in another low downforce race.
19. Tyler Reddick ($7,600) - Jeff Gordon made an interesting point last week when discussing Tyler Reddick. It seems that the young driver looks great in the early stages of each race, but the driver and team fail to make necessary adjustments as the race progresses every week.
20. Cole Custer ($7,700) - His price increase makes sense given his starting position, and it’s not an expensive price for an SHR car. However, this season, SHR cars do not feel like the SHR cars DFS players have become accustomed to playing. Custer can work this weekend, but it’s going to require a little luck.
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