Happy Thursday! We’ve got a fun six-game night slate on the diamond to get excited about as we approach the weekend. I’ve got my eye on quite a few bets today, but have narrowed it down to three. With that in mind, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jameson Taillon gets the ball for the Yankees here, and he’s one of the biggest candidates for positive regression in the entire league. His 5.02 ERA isn’t indicative of how he’s pitched, considering he comes into this one sporting a 2.97 expected ERA. You rarely see a difference this large, meaning it’s only a matter of time before Taillon starts to see the numbers he deserves.
The righty is on his way to the best strikeout season of his career, pushing towards a 29% strikeout rate. His fastball and curveball have generated more whiffs, while his slider has become a pitch which is put back in play softly after it was used primarily as a put-away pitch in 2019. Only four teams were worse against four-seamers last year than the Rays, who had -0.22 weighted runs per 100 pitches against them, and so far this season they’ve ranked right in the middle of the league, showing few signs of growth. That should make for a positive matchup for Taillon, and with a red-hot offense backing him up against a struggling Rich Hill, I think the price is right here.
Sean Manaea has been great all year, and admittedly I looked to bet the Athletics in this spot initially, considering he’s at a much higher level than Garrett Richards. After looking into it a bit more, however, I’m inclined to believe both pitchers should get touched up tonight.
The Red Sox are the owners of the eighth-best wRC+ and OPS in the league against left-handed pitching, and have beaten up on sinker-ballers like Manaea. They have created 3.76 weighted runs per 100 sinkers, according to FanGraphs.
The A’s, on the other hand, have been hot at the dish and get Richards, who has yielded a ridiculous 49.5% hard-hit rate. Nothing about his last few seasons would indicate he’s going to enjoy any sort of positive regression, and I have faith in the A’s getting some on the board early.
If you’re going to believe in one of these Marlins starters, you’re going to need a really, really great matchup for the offense, because it is bad. Merrill Kelly hasn’t had the greatest season on paper, but he’s done a very nice job limiting the damage over his last three starts, where he’s allowed five runs in 17.1 innings with nine strikeouts. Those games came against the Padres, Rockies (at Coors) and Mets, so they’re certainly worth rating.
The Diamondbacks have posted a 126 wRC+ against lefties this year, which is the third-best mark in the league, and while I like Trevor Rogers, I think he’s found himself in a tough matchup here. He’s been the beneficiary of a fairly easy schedule in the early going, and I think some regression should be setting in soon. This is a great number to bet on that regression, particularly with Rogers pitching on the road.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.