Thirteen is an unlucky number. Tonight we have 13 games. Unlucky.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zack Greinke, $9,500, Houston Astros (-235) vs. Texas Rangers (+190)— Gross.
Greinke is not someone I’d ever be betting on in any circumstance at this rate. The guy is simply not good anymore. His strikeouts continue to tumble, home runs have been an issue thus far and his 4.31 FIP aligns with his 4.23 ERA. They’re not letting Greinke go deep into games either. He’s lasted just four innings in three straight games but was only in the 80’s for a pitch count in all of them. Not sure what that’s all about but I’m absolutely not using him in daily fantasy either. To be fair, it’s not like you’re getting a total pushover for a lineup against righties either. The Rangers have a respectable .314 wOBA, a.156 ISO and a 104 wRC+ against righties this season.
The price on Greinke is just too much for me on both DraftKings Sportsbook and DraftKings. It’s like trying to buy boxes of football cards anywhere but retail stores. You’re overpaying immensely and unless you hit something big, you question why you overpaid for something you have little chance to hit on to begin with. That’s Greinke tonight.
Other notable favorite: Luis Castillo ($6,200; -150) at Colorado Rockies
Highest Projected Total
Cincinnati Reds (-105; 4.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (-115; 4.5 runs) 10.5 runs — If you bet the underdog Rockies last night, you got an easy win thanks to the inept pitching abilities of Luis Castillo. As of now, the Rockies are actually favored in this one, which if this stays like this, would only be the eighth time this season. When favored, which have all come at Coors Field, the Rockies have a record of 4-2.
DraftKings Sportsbook isn’t putting too much stock into the no-hitter that Wade Miley ($7,100) threw in his last outing against the Indians. It was a magnificent performance but dominating like he did is not the norm for Miley. I, as many will be, are still very down on this Rockies offense but at least they showed some life last night. They are averaging 5.7 runs at home after that game, which is the third-highest in the league. I’m certainly not looking to use Miley in this one. He’ll be opposed by German Marquez ($5,600), who is a great pitcher to target against with lefties. They tagged him for a .352 wOBA, a 4.44 FIP and two of the four home runs he’s allowed.
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Weather Notes
Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays - Slight chance at a delayed start but nothing more than that.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Shoemaker, .431, 8.20
Dean Kremer, .400, 6.46
German Marquez, .351, 4.43
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Clayton Kershaw, .124, 1.81
Max Scherzer, .223, 2.32
Tyler Glasnow, .227, 2.65
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tarik Skubal, .441, 9.70
Drew Smyly, .372, 7.41
Vince Velasquez, .372, 7.34
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Joe Musgrove, .189, 2.01
Wade Miley, .222, 3.60
Tyler Glasnow, .244, 2.91
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, $10,700 — This slate is absolutely loaded with top-tier pitching options with three of them in the $10K range. I love this spot for Scherzer, on the road in Arizona against the D-Backs. He’s faced them once already going seven shutout innings allowing just two hits and striking out 10 for 33.4 DKFP. The D-Backs aren’t normally a team you target for strikeouts but Scherzer simply got the best of them here. It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise with his 16.2% swing-and-miss rate and an entire roster of players that have not succeeded against him.
I truly believe you can’t go wrong with any of the top three options on this slate but with Scherzer striking out nine in four of his last five starts, he’s my choice.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, $5,500 — There is a lot to like about this game. I like stacking the Brewers against Drew Smyly ($7,600) and using the lefties on the Braves against Adrian Houser ($8,200). If we’re using lefties on the Braves, Freeman is naturally the first option. Since the beginning of last season, Houser has a putrid .396 wOBA with a 5.77 FIP and a 1.7 HR/9 across 41 1/3 innings. Freeman has been a bit all over the place offensively thus far but still boasts a solid .387 wOBA with a .284 ISO and eight of the nine home runs he’s hit against righties.
Save Big by Drafting
Mitch Moreland, Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins, $3,300 — Salary saving is going to be a must tonight so we need to get creative. Moreland is going to have extremely low ownership but his matchup on paper is a really strong one. He’s going up against Matt Shoemaker ($6,700) who seemingly can’t pitch well against anyone except the Tigers. Lefties have tagged him with a .432 wOBA, a 8.21 FIP and five of the seven home runs he’s already allowed.
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