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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Marlins vs. Dodgers Showdown on May 15

Zach Thompson gives his top lineup advice for Saturday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Marlins and Dodgers, which starts at 9:10 p.m. ET.

San Diego Padres v Los Angeles Dodgers Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

The Saturday night Showdown this week on DraftKings features the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Miami Marlins after opening the series with a 9-6 victory on Friday night behind Clayton Kershaw. They did suffer a loss as well, though, with A.J. Pollock (hamstring) likely headed to the injured list with a strained left hamstring, which he aggravated in the second inning.

The Dodgers will be without Pollock as they face Jordan Holloway ($8,800) on Saturday night, but they’ll counter with Trevor Bauer ($11,000), who has started his first season with the Dodgers strong, going 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 3.52 FIP. The Dodgers have been very good at home, going 11-5 at Dodger Stadium, and have seemed to turn things back around after a rough stretch earlier this month. L.A. has won three straight to improve to 21-17, while Miami comes into this contest 17-21 despite a +11 run differential.

DraftKings Sportsbook has the over/under for this game at 7.5 runs, and the Dodgers are heavily favored with a -210 moneyline. There are some nice fantasy plays to consider on both sides, though, so let’s jump right into how to construct your DraftKings lineups for Saturday night’s Showdown contest.


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Captain’s Picks

Trevor Bauer ($16,500 CP) - The top six most expensive plays in this contest are all Dodgers led by Bauer, who has averaged an impressive 25.9 DKFP per start this season. Much of that production is based on punchouts, and Bauer has piled up 67 strikeouts in his 50 13 innings. He has only allowed six hits and two earned runs in his 13 innings at home this season, holding opponents to a .133 average and .193 wOBA while striking out 18 of the 47 batters he has faced at Dodger Stadium

Bauer has been very consistent with over 23 DKFP in all but one of his eight starts, and he should be able to keep rolling against the Marlins. Miami ranks in the bottom third of the MLB in runs scored, home runs and OPS and have struck out the seventh-most times, averaging 9.74 strikeouts per contest.

Max Muncy ($14,700 CP) - Muncy is the hottest Dodgers bat right now and comes at a nice price, especially since he’s not in a lefty-lefty matchup in this game. Muncy has a 40.3% hard-hit rate this season with an impressive 15.6% barrel rate. He has a .252 ISO and .404 wOBA, continuing to show off good power. In his past eight games, he has gone 10-for-28 (.357) with five of those 10 hits being home runs, powering him to 11 RBI and an average of 15.4 DKFP per game over that span. He hasn’t been quite on Bauer’s level of production but has been the best bat to target in a stacked L.A. lineup


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $5K Extra Inning [$1K to 1st] (MIA vs LAD)


Value Plays

Miguel Rojas ($9,000) - Rojas has moved back into the leadoff spot for the Marlins and has been doing a good job helping create offense over the past few games. He picked up two more hits including a double on Friday night and has gone 17-for-41 (.414) with 14 runs scored over his past 10 starts, averaging 13.0 DKFP per game.

Matt Beaty ($7,000) - With Pollock injuring himself for the second consecutive Friday, it looks like the Dodgers will be forced to put him on the injured list. Pollock’s absence would seem to open up regular playing time against right-handed starters for Beaty, who has a .381 wOBA and .109 ISO in his first 26 games this season. He has a 39.4% hard-hit rate this season after posting a hard-hit rate over 40% in each of his two previous seasons in the major leagues. Beaty has performed well in a part-time role and makes a solid play at just $7K as he tries to prove he can carry the load while Pollock is sidelined.


Fades

Justin Turner ($10,400) - Listing Holloway here seemed too obvious of a pick, although I’m definitely staying away from almost any starting pitcher facing this Dodgers lineup. Instead, I’ll go with Turner since he’s a little pricier than I think he should be in this matchup. While Turner is always a solid play, I usually prefer to use him against lefties. He did have a couple of hits on Friday, but that was his first multi-hit performance in almost two weeks, and he only has one home run during that span as well. Turner isn’t an awful play, but Muncy is much hotter and comes in on the better side of the splits against Holloway, who has held righties to a .241 wOBA while giving up a .283 wOBA to lefties like Muncy and Beaty.


The Outcome

There’s too much Bauer power in this one to pick against the Dodgers. Miami has played slightly better than their record indicates and has gotten strong starting pitching as a whole. However, Holloway facing so many top lefties in the L.A. lineup is a recipe for disaster, so I think the Dodgers get their fourth win in a row.

Final Score: Dodgers 8, Marlins 2

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $5K Extra Inning [$1K to 1st] (MIA vs LAD)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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