Happy Saturday! We’ve got a fully-loaded slate on the diamond to get excited about as we begin the weekend. I’ve got my eye on quite a few bets today, but have narrowed it down to three. With that in mind, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
They say don’t judge a book by its cover, and the same rule applies to baseball. Don’t judge a starting pitcher merely on his ERA, dig deeper to find the whole story.
Jorge López isn’t that bad, his fastball and sinker are up there in velocity and give hitters real fits. Those hitters include the Yankees who, aside from one inning in López’s first start of the season, have struggled to get to him. Even with that three-run frame for Lopez, the Yankees are hitting just .212 off the righty. He was effective in his second go-around against this order just a couple of weeks ago, allowing a pair of earned runs.
Furthermore, he’s been great at the start of games, with just two earned in the first two innings of starts so far this year. That’s why I like the first-five under here; I don’t want to mess around too much with López facing the lineup for the third time, or this Orioles bullpen. Baltimore’s offense hasn’t been overly imposing, either, and Domingo Germán shut it out the last time he saw the Orioles over seven innings. This should be a slow-starting game.
There’s been something very impressive about Luis Garcia this year. The righty is striking out nearly 29% of the hitters he has faced and has demonstrated great command of his four-seam fastball and cutter. The latter has generated over a 50% whiff rate thus far, helping him to an overall whiff rate that’s ranked in the top 28% of the league. It won’t be easy against this hot Texas offense, but the Rangers have always been a team that has struggled against pitchers who generate swings and misses like this, with so many guys who push toward the top of the league in swinging-strike rate.
On the other hand, Dane Dunning’s slider and change have been almost unhittable this season, and as a reward, he’s posted a 3.21 expected ERA. He’s had some bouts with hard contact, but his strikeout numbers have been grand as well. His matchup here isn’t as favorable as Garcia’s, but I think the Houston righty will do more than enough here to get us across the finish line. There’s a reason the total is so low despite how great these offenses have been looking.
Speaking of pitchers who have been extraordinary, how about Adam Wainwright? It’s time to start believing in the grizzled veteran. His strikeout rate has shot up to 23.5%, which is pretty remarkable considering he lacks great swing-and-miss stuff at this age. His 3.80 ERA is backed by an even-better 3.43 xERA, and the best part is that he’s got an offense behind him that’s really rounding into form.
That offense has gotten homer-happy lately, which is something Chris Paddack has always struggled with, even though this season has been different for the righty. He’s still around the same fly ball rate, though, which leads me to believe the homers are coming. These bats should deliver against the highly disappointing youngster.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.