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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Heat vs. Bucks Showdown on May 15

Matt LaMarca gives his top lineup advice for Saturday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Heat and Bucks, which starts at 8 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia 76ers v Miami Heat Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Tonight’s contest between the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks is the final Saturday night showdown of the regular season. Both of these teams have already secured a guaranteed spot in the postseason, but both teams technically still have something to play for. The Bucks can finish either second or third in the conference, which would determine who has homecourt if they meet the Nets in the second round of the playoffs. The Heat can finish anywhere from fourth to sixth, which has the potential to be big deal. The No. 6 seed means a first-round matchup with the Nets or Bucks, while the other seeds guarantee a matchup between either the Hawks or Knicks. That’s a much more appealing scenario.

That said, it remains to be seen how much these teams value moving up in the standings. The Bucks are notorious for resting players when they can, while the Heat are dealing with a pair of injuries. As always, make sure to download the DK Live app to get notified of any lineup changes before tip-off.

As things stand currently, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Heat listed as three-point road favorites, while the total sits at 230.5. There are a lot of dynamics at play in this matchup, so let’s break down everything to help you build your showdown lineups.


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Captain’s Picks

EDITOR’S NOTE: Jimmy Butler (back) has been ruled out Saturday vs. the Bucks. Kendrick Nunn (calf) is available and will start.

Jimmy Butler ($15,000) – The Heat are the team I’m choosing to target in this matchup. This matchup means more to them, so I expect them to take it a bit more seriously.

That starts with Butler, who is one of the most competitive people in a league full of competitors. He’s currently listed as questionable, but he was able to suit up on Thursday despite being questionable, so I’m fully expecting him to be in the lineup. He has been limited in his past two games, but he scored 52.5 and 57.0 DKFP in those two contests. He has arguably the highest ceiling in this game depending on what you think the Bucks are going to do with their lineup.

Goran Dragic ($8,700) – If Butler does end up sitting, Dragic is the player who will be asked to pick up the slack. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +3.6% with Butler off the court this season, and he’s averaged 1.00 DKFP in 13 games with Butler out of the lineup. Kendrick Nunn ($9.300 CP; $6,200) is also questionable, and Dragic would see if boost if he’s out of the lineup, as well.


Set your DraftKings lineup here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (MIA vs MIL)


UTIL Plays

Bam Adebayo ($9,800) – Adebayo is another quality option for the Heat. He’s coming off 48.0 DKFP in his last game, and he’s capable of racking up fantasy points in a variety of ways. He would see a boost in both usage and playmaking opportunities if either Butler or Nunn is ruled out, but he has appeal even if both players are active.

Trevor Ariza ($5,400) – The Heat have slowly started to ramp up Ariza’s workload as we get closer to the playoffs. He’s played at least 30.5 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s coming off 34.1 minutes in his last outing. Ariza isn’t the greatest producer on a per-minute basis, but that’s a lot of playing time for someone with this price tag.

Pat Connaughton ($3,000) – If you’re like me and you’re skeptical of the Bucks’ stars on today’s slate – more on that in a bit – it makes sense to target some of their role players. Connaughton is someone that stands out to me, but guys like Bryn Forbes ($2,200) and Jeff Teague ($1,000) also make sense.


Fades

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,600) – How you choose to approach Giannis is likely going to dictate your success on today’s slate. You can make an appealing case to either use him as your captain or fade him altogether. It’s ultimately going to come down to how many minutes he ends up playing.

Ultimately, I’m going to side with the latter. Giannis obviously has tremendous upside if his minutes aren’t limited, but the Vegas data in this matchup has me scared. Why is Milwaukee a home underdog in this matchup? It makes me think that Giannis is going to be limited.

Additionally, the Heat are one of the few teams that have been able to slow Giannis down. They did a great against him during the postseason last year, and they’ve followed that up by limiting him to an average of 49.63 DKFP per game this season. Add it all up, and there’s enough here to be skeptical about Giannis on today’s slate.


THE OUTCOME

You want to create a narrative with your Showdown lineups, and the narrative I’m telling myself is that the Bucks don’t take this game seriously. I’m expecting less than 30 minutes for guys like Giannis, Khris Middleton ($14,100 CP; $9,400) and Jrue Holiday ($14,400 CP; $9,600), which is going to make it tough for them to be competitive.

With that in mind, the Heat should cruise to victory if they take this game seriously. As long as Butler is in the lineup, I think they win this one pretty easily.

Final Score: Heat 110, Bucks 96


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Set your DraftKings lineup here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (MIA vs MIL)


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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