The time has finally come for our second major of the season. The 2021 PGA Championship begins this week at the Ocean Course (par 72, 7,876 yards) of the Kiawah Island Golf Resort in South Carolina. The last time this seaside venue hosted a PGA TOUR event was back in 2012 for the PGA Championship. That year, Rory McIlroy absolutely dominated, winning the Wanamaker Trophy by eight shots. The Ocean Course was designed by the late Pete Dye and is a beautiful work of art that resembles a link-styled venue.
While it may be a joy to look at, this par 72 is notoriously known as one of the most difficult tracks in the United States, particularly now in 2021. For this year’s PGA Championship, the Ocean Course is going to play at an egregious 7,826 yards, which is in fact the longest course that has ever hosted a major.
While not many bombers were at the top of the leaderboard for the 2012 PGA Championship outside of McIlroy, who led the field in driving distance that week, the Ocean Course is measuring over 300 yards longer this time around. That is a significant difference and I absolutely believe longer hitters will have an advantage this week. Not only will you need a stronger driver in your bag, but precision with your longer irons is going to be a must at the Ocean Course.
Hence its name, 10 of the 18 holes at this Dye design play along the Atlantic Ocean, making wind a huge factor. Predicting which direction and the strength of these gusts off the coast is an impossible task, and how long each hole plays is going to vary on a daily basis depending on the conditions. It may sound cliché, but we need to prioritize elite ball strikers this week, and players who have strong resumes in windy conditions, if possible.
The Ocean Course brings an interesting collection of holes, but the thing that stands out the most is unsurprisingly the length. There are a pair of par fours that are less than 400 yards, but the remaining eight range from 447 to 514 yards. Additionally, all four of the par fives are at least 557 yards and the four par threes land between 198 and 238 yards. Even at these distances, the par fives still present the best birdie chances these golfers are going to see this week. So, while we need to put the usual heavy weight on par four scoring, efficiency on the par fives is equally important.
Albeit before the renovations, McIlroy ranked T4th in SG on the par fours and 5th in SG on the par fives during his memorable victory at the Ocean Course in 2012. The greens these golfers will be attacking this week are paspalum grass. This is by far the least common cut used on the PGA TOUR and while it is not a necessity, finding players with positive splits on this type of surface certainly doesn’t hurt. In general, when we are expecting a demanding test of golf, putting an emphasis on bogey avoidance is a sharp move when choosing our golfers. Over the last decade, nine of the 10 players to take home the Wanamaker Trophy finished inside the top-10 in least bogeys during their win.
156 of the world’s best golfers will be competing at the Ocean Course this week, and the cutline will be the top-70 and ties moving on to the weekend following the first 36 holes. Even with more golfers than usual advancing, the primary goal is still getting all six of the golfers in our lineup through the cut, and below I present to you four of my favorite DraftKings value plays for this anticipated PGA Championship.
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Lee Westwood, $7,400
Westwood is a player that always needs to be considered at majors, especially with minimal attention coming his way this week. After supplying back-to-back runner-up finishes, Westwood missed two cuts in a row, but his game appears to be trending in the right direction after a positive showing at the Byron Nelson last weekend. At TPC Craig Ranch, the savvy veteran fired off an eight-under 64 for the second round and ranked 12th in SGT2G for the week, en route to a T21 finish.
Westwood has remarkably only missed two cuts in his past 20 major starts, and if he can build off his showing in Texas last week, a top-20 is a real possibility. He is currently the 21st ranked player in the world, but only the 40th most expensive golfer on DraftKings.
Keegan Bradley, $7,300
Bradley is always a tough pill to swallow, but the 2011 PGA Championship winner can’t be ignored at this modest price. Throughout his career, he has always been known as an elite ball striker, but now, Bradley’s putter has come alive, creating some undeniable form. He ranks 5th in SGT2G across his last 12 rounds and has also positively gained strokes with his flat stick in five of his past six starts.
This has translated to six straight finishes inside the top-30 for Bradley, including a runner-up at the Valspar three weeks ago. In total, the 34-year-old has proceeded to the weekend at ten of his last 12 events, and now gets to meet the Ocean Course for the second time. Bradley posted a T3 at this track in 2012 and is eight for 10 in made cuts at PGA Championships for his career.
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Stewart Cink, $6,900
Plain and simple, Cink is way too cheap for how well he is playing right now. He is currently riding a four made cut streak, including the runaway win at the RBC Heritage, and the veteran ranks 2nd in SG APP, 11th in SGT2G, 5th in GIR, 6th in ball striking, 8th in bogeys avoided, 12th in SG on par fours and 27th in SG on par fives across his past 12 rounds. Also over this stretch, the 47-year-old has really improved off the tee, ranking 8th in driving distance.
The extra boost with his driver will be needed this week at the Ocean Course, and Cink should add another quality finish to his major resume. He recorded a T4 the last time he teed it up at a PGA Championship, which is one of his four top-25 finishes in his last five major appearances.
Charl Schwartzel, $6,800
Schwartzel hasn’t been a relevant name on the PGA TOUR for a few years, but the South African’s game has been resurrected over the last two months. Coming into this major, Schwartzel has found himself playing on the weekend at six consecutive tournaments, which is his longest made cut streak since 2018. He has improved in each of his last four starts, finishing T26, T21, T14 and T3, in that order. During that T3 at the Byron Nelson last week, Schwartzel was on fire, ranking 5th in SGT2G and 5th in SG APP. The 36-year-old now ranks 5th in SG APP, 9th in SGT2G, 4th in GIR, 11th in SG on par fives and 30th in driving distance when we compare the last 12 rounds of all these players.
Schwartzel made the cut at the Ocean Course back in 2012, and is 11 for 14 in made cuts at PGA Championships. Few players in this world class field are in better form than Schwartzel, and he is a certified steal at this sub $7,000 salary.
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