Wednesday doesn’t always have the biggest slates but tonight features 12 games. Impressive!
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jack Flaherty, $9,700, St. Louis Cardinals (-225) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+185)— Before I went over to DraftKings Sportsbook, I was already eyeing Flaherty in a very good matchup against the Pirates. It was no surprise to see him as the biggest favorite against a team with an 88 wRC+, a .298 wOBA and a .122 ISO against righties. Flaherty faced this team once already, going six innings and allowed three runs on six hits with nine strikeouts in a game the Cardinals won 12-5. It’s worth noting that the Cardinals are undefeated in the eight games that Flaherty has started this season, including two straight starts of shutout baseball. In fact, since the Pirates scored two runs off him in the sixth inning earlier this month, Flaherty has pitched 13 straight innings of shutout baseball against the Brewers and Rockies. Needless to say, this should be a prime spot for the Cardinals ace.
Other notable favorite: Corbin Burnes ($10,300; -175) vs. Kansas City Royals
Highest Projected Total
Boston Red Sox (+102; 4.5 runs) at Toronto Blue Jays (-120; 5.5 runs) 10 runs — These teams are once again involved in the highest projected total on the slate, this time with a double-digit number. Taking the mound is Garrett Richards ($7,500) for the Sox and Ross Stripling ($6,400) for the Jays.
I’m fairly torn on this total. Richards has pitched extremely well as of late and over his last four starts has allowed no more than one run in three of them. He’s been so impressive over that span that he boasts a 3.34 FIP, a .312 wOBA and a 23% K% over his last 29 2/3 innings. Not exactly the type of numbers you want to see if you were looking to play the over on the game total.
These two teams also continue to struggle with hitting the over on the game total overall. After once again going under last night, these teams have combined to go 36-45-2 with the over. I don’t think this is going to be a 2-1 game or anything like that but I’m being very cautious with taking the over when these teams are involved and especially with how Richards has been throwing as of late.
Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals - This is going to be a trouble spot with rain. It looks as if this game could see multiple delays or even a postponement. Keep an eye on this one even if you aren’t interested in it, as the ownership on Burnes could trickle down to the other options at SP.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Trevor Cahill, .418, 5.26
Brad Keller, .379, 4.35
Zach Eflin, .360, 4.24
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Clayton Kershaw, .129, 1.83
John Means, .199, 3.30
Max Scherzer, .216, 2.28
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Ross Stripling, .456, 6.21
Tarik Skubal, .424, 8.93
Brad Keller, .419, 6.00
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Shohei Ohtani, .164, 1.29
Corbin Burnes, .171, 0.02
John Means, .197, 2.81
Pitcher to Build Around
Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, $9,100 — The price for Rogers has finally risen to an acceptable level and now people will start to take notice (as they should have been already). He’s quietly been the ace of the Marlins staff and yet, no one has seemingly given him much attention. Now he’ll face a banged up Phillies lineup that has one of the highest K% against lefties at 29.5%. While the top of the lineup still has some dangerous bats, the lineup quickly turns south after Rhys Hoskins ($4,700) in the cleanup spot. Even with a simple arsenal of a fastball, slider and changeup, Rogers faces a team that ranks 27th against the fastball, a pitch he’s thrown 60% of the time. I’m more than willing to pay up for him here.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays $5,500 — I do have some reservations about this game hitting the over but I’m all about targeting specific matchups, like the lefty Devers going against Stripling, Since the beginning of last season, Stripling has been tagged for a 4.26 FIP, a 1.6 HR/9 and a 34.7% hard-hit rate against lefties. Meanwhile, Devers continues to be a massive source of power for the Red Sox, boasting a .381 ISO and a .416 wOBA against righties. Those numbers jump even more on the road with a .522 ISO and a .462 wOBA.
Save Big by Drafting
Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $3,300 — Do you know who is slowly starting to come around at the plate? It’s Gavin Lux. During the month of May he’s posted a .376 wOBA, with a .164 ISO and a 142 wRC+. Tonight he could get a couple of at-bats against Merrill Kelly ($7,200) who has a .340 wOBA, 5.14 FIP and three of the six home runs he’s allowed to lefties. Lux doesn’t have a great spot in the Dodgers lineup but if you’re looking to stack em, he is a nice way to not only save some salary but to differentiate your lineup.
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