We’re riding high after a 3-0 week on article plays last Wednesday, bringing our record for the season to 11-6. I mean, even the parlay hit. How crazy is that? Anyway, let’s attempt to ride the momentum into tonight’s slate, which, as always, is chalked full of baseball goodness.
Here are my three favorite MLB bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
For as much as this wager makes me a little nervous, this is a matter of principle. In no world should Ross Stripling be a favorite, even if in said world the RHP’s team is 6-1 in its past seven games and leads baseball with a 137 wRC+ when playing in its weird Single-A ballpark. The Jays can mash the baseball. There is no doubt about that. However, the Red Sox come into tonight’s action with very similar marks in both ISO (.178) and wOBA (.334) in the month of May. They should have little issue generating runs off of Stripling, who has surrendered 2.17 home runs per nine dating back to the beginning of 2020 — the third-most of any pitcher with at least 70.0 innings thrown within that span. Heck, RHBs have combined to produce an eye-popping .661 slugging percentage off of Stripling in 2021. J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts can’t wait for this game to start. Also working in Boston’s favor is Garrett Richards, owner of a 2.60 ERA and a 3.24 FIP across his past six outings.
After 13 runs and 15 hits on Tuesday, it might seem a little insane to doubt this Rays offense on Wednesday. Yet, John Means is not Matt Harvey. The left-hander has been among the best pitchers in the game so far in 2021, as he’s maintained a 1.21 ERA and a 2.77 expected ERA across his first 52.0 innings. Tampa has also had it’s struggles doing anything of note against southpaws. To wit, the Rays come into today’s contest with the league’s highest strikeout rate (31.9%) and it’s fourth-lowest wOBA (.287) within the split. I’d assume Means isn’t going to be the lefty that suddenly reverses these damning trends. On the other side, Ryan Yarbrough is set to toe the rubber versus Baltimore and he’s had a great deal of success early in games this season. In fact, in the LHP’s four starts, he’s held opponents to a microscopic .197 wOBA in his first trip through the lineup. With this kind of talent on the mound, I think we’ll easily get through the first inning without a run being scored.
Team Total: Pirates UN 2.5 runs (+112)
There isn’t a lot of wiggle room with this prop — so much so it might be wiser to simply use the following logic and bet the Cardinals on the run-line — but I’m a sucker for the extra juice. The Pirates are a poor offensive team. There is no debating this. Entering play on Wednesday, Pittsburgh sports baseball’s lowest ISO against right-handed pitching (.114), while the team also owns the league’s lowest wRC+ in the month of May (71). That would be a bad omen in most settings, but especially headed into a matchup with Jack Flaherty. Since giving up six earned runs on Opening Day, Flaherty has been almost unhittable. Across the RHP’s past 43.0 innings, opponents have been held to a modest .219 wOBA, while Flaherty has pitched to a sterling marks in ERA (1.47), FIP (2.30) and WHIP (0.86). He’s starting to resemble the man he was in the second-half of 2019 and, to be blunt, the Pirates aren’t equipped to handle that sort of skill. It doesn’t hurt that St. Louis’ bullpen has only conceded a single home run this month, either.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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