clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Mets vs. Phillies Showdown on May 2

Pearce Dietrich gives his top lineup advice for Sunday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Mets and Phillies, which starts at 7:08 p.m. ET.

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

One of these paper tigers has to come out on top tonight. Both of these lineups enter Sunday night with a wRC+ below 95. Their team wOBA and ISO stats are below average as well. However, the pitchers taking the mound do not offer much either. Each pitcher has a solid xFIP and has gotten the job done this season, but both are susceptible to damage from the opposite side of the plate, and each will face formidable platoons.



New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Captain’s Picks

Rhys Hoskins ($14,100 CP) - Last season, Hoskins destroyed left-handed pitching (.509 wOBA, .390 ISO, 223 wRC+). His numbers are so unbelievable that the first thing that comes to mind is sample size. This season the sample size has extended (.449 wOBA, .448 ISO, 186 wRC+). Although David Peterson ($14,700 CP; $9,800) has been very good this season (2.98 xFIP), the lefty has struggled with right-handed power bats (.280 ISO, 2.5 HR/9). Peterson leans heavily on a very effective slider against left-handed bats, but that pitch will not work on right-handed batters. Instead, he leans on his sinker against right-handed bats and hopes for ground balls. He can’t only throw sinkers and that’s when he gets into trouble. This season his fastball has a .619 xwOBA and his slider has a .487 xwOBA. If Hoskins gets a four-seamer, it’s game over. Against right-handed fastballs, Hoskins' average exit velocity is 95.1 mph with a launch angle of 22 degrees.

Michael Conforto ($12,000 CP) - This is a little on the cheaper end, but Conforto opens up your roster. Conforto has a platoon advantage against a pitcher with a weakness against the opposite side, but best of all, there are BvP stats that support Conforto. In 26 at-bats against Zach Eflin ($15,900 CP; $10,600), Conforto has a .407 wOBA and a .423 ISO against the right-handed pitcher. If you’re not a BvP truther, then just look at Eflin’s career splits — 5.09 xFIP vs. LHB and a 3.92 xFIP vs. RHB. That trend has not ended this season. Eflin is only striking out 12% of lefties while allowing 50% fly balls. So far he’s gotten away with this, but his 5.50 xFIP to left-handed batters hints at a meltdown on the horizon. Conforto, like most Mets, is not living up to expectations, but he might be heating up. He homered yesterday and has an extra-base hit in three of his past five games.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Sunday Night Showdown [$25K to 1st] (NYM vs PHI)


Value Plays

Jonathan Villar ($6,200) - J.D. Davis ($10,500 CP; $7,000) sprained his hand yesterday and was removed from the game. It is unlikely that he plays tonight, so that opens the door for another left-handed bat against Eflin. This season, Villar has been respectable against right-handed pitching (.315 wOBA, .179 ISO, 104 wRC+). His strikeout rate is sky high, but that’s Villar. Over Eflin’s career against left-handed batters, he has allowed a .366 wOBA, .252 ISO and 2.2 HR/9.

Kevin Pillar ($4,400) - The Mets lost two starters yesterday, and it’s likely that Pillar will replace Brandon Nimmo ($10,800 CP; $7,200) in centerfield. Albert Almora Jr ($6,900 CP; $4,600) could draw the start, but he’s the same play for all intents and purposes. It’s a straight savings play. This is the part where DFS players have already decided to take the extreme savings, so they then look for a stat that confirms that bias. What better stat than BvP for this non-scientific endeavor? Pillar has a home run, a double, a single and a walk in seven plate appearances against Eflin. That sample size is too small, but it’s a savings play. Pillar has struggled this season, and some of that is BABIP, but a lot of it is a near career-high strikeout percentage (25%). It’s a punt, deal with it.


Fades

David Peterson ($14,700 CP; $9,800) - This will be Peterson’s third matchup against the Phillies. They smashed him (six earned runs) and he smashed them (10 strikeouts). The latter seems like the aberration because Peterson has not generated strikeouts in any of his other performances. The peculiar stat this season for Peterson is that for a ground-ball pitcher that has been holding batters to soft contact, he’s given up a notable 11.5% barrel rate. If pitchers can get through the meat of Philadelphia’s lineup, then they’re fine, but the numbers suggest that it’s more likely that Peterson fails to survive Bryce Harper ($16,200 CP, $10,800), J.T. Realmuto ($15,300 CP; $10,200) and Hoskins.


The Outcome

The Mets’ 2020 offensive struggles have carried over, but the situation got worse on Saturday when they lost two starters. The Phillies’ offense hasn’t been much better outside of their big three bats. Neither offense shows up tonight, but the pitching does not put on a show either. Hoskins and Harper put the Phillies over the top.

Final Score: Phillies 5, Mets 4

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Sunday Night Showdown [$25K to 1st] (NYM vs PHI)


Refer a friend and get $20 DK Dollars! Head to the DraftKings Playbook Promo page for more details!


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF(IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).

21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.