The Panthers roll into this game down 3-1 and are small home underdogs on the moneyline. The Lightning were dominant in Game 4 — which they won 6-2 — but could be up against it here in game five. Both Nikita Kucherov ($8,200; knee) and Mikhail Sergachev ($4,400; undisclosed) have been cleared to play, but they were questionable to play at one point. The Panthers played the Lightning well in the regular season and grade out as the fourth-best team in xGF% in the playoffs this year. The Panthers seem likely to push their Florida rivals here, and I like chasing them on the ML today.
Top Line Stack
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild
Chandler Stephenson ($4,400) — Mark Stone ($6,800) — Alex Tuch ($5,000)
The Golden Knights can move on today with a win and have looked like the team to back in this series. The Wild have now allowed 12 goals over the last three games after shutting out Vegas in Game 1. The Golden Knights have done all this without the services of their best forward, Max Pacioretty ($7,300; undisclosed), who is again questionable and seems unlikely to start here. Their depth is something to take advantage of for DFS. Tuch remains exceedingly cheap on DraftKings for the production he’s brought in this series and down the stretch. He’s now averaging an elite 3.7 SOG over the last 10-games and has three goals already in this series.
Tuch is now playing on the Vegas first-line (and PP1) alongside Stone, who has taken over this series in many ways. The elite playmaker has also buried his chances when they’ve come, scoring three goals in the last two games. The Wild simply haven’t been able to stop this line since Game 1, and with Cam Talbot ($7,200) playing poorly, it makes a ton of sense to continue targeting the Golden Knights’ top forwards for Game 5.
Superstar to Target
Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning ($7,600)
Barkov heads into this game playing at an elite level. He’s averaging 3.4 SOG and now has 14 points over his past 10 games, seven of which have come on the power play. He is seeing huge volume and feels like a lock to see 22-plus minutes Monday given the elimination game here. The Panthers have been stonewalled by a good goalie at many points this series, but they’re generating the fourth-most chances of any team in the playoffs thus far and feel like a breakout candidate here at home. I like targeting and building around Barkov here, who is available at his cheapest price point in over 10 games.
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Value on Offense
Pierre-Luc Dubois, Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers ($3,400)
Dubois has had a miserable year but remains a part of the Jets’ top-six forwards, playing on a line with Paul Stastny ($3,200) and Nikolaj Ehlers ($5,100). The return of Ehlers sparked the Jets in Game 4 as he was able to grab two goals and give the Jets a stranglehold on this series. Dubois picked up two assists on those goals and had his best game of the series, firing four SOG. I like targeting this entire line today, but if you need really cheap value as a stand-alone play, Dubois gives you some solid upside given the return to form of his line.
Alex Killorn, Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers ($3,900)
Killhorn has been a big part of the Lightning’s success in the playoffs thus far. The veteran winger has seven points in TB’s last three games of the series and is playing big minutes as he continues to be the main piece on Tampa’s PP1, where three of those seven points have come. The Lightning are likely to lean on him even more Monday, with two of their better power-play producers being banged up. With a sub-$4K salary and a locked-in role within the Lightning’s top six, he’s the best pure value on the slate at forward Monday.
Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Islanders ($8,100)
Jarry gave up four goals in the Penguins’ 4-1 loss in Game 4 but is 2-2 in the series. This series has been close and heads back to Pittsburgh Monday, where Jarry has been strong all season. The Pittsburgh goalie posted a 17-3-3 record this year at home with a .927 save percentage. His best game of the series also came at home, where he stopped 37 of 38 SOG for a 2-1 win. The Isles have come alive a bit in this series, as they always seem to do in the playoffs, but this is still an offense that should scare no one after ranking 21st in goals scored and 19th in power-play efficiency throughout the regular season. Jarry is a good pay-up option here since he and the Penguins also sit as strong -140 favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook, the third biggest favorite on the slate.
Value on Defense
Ryan McDonagh, Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers ($4,300)
McDonagh only had 15 points in 54 games this year, but he’s one of the more prolific shot blockers in the league and is currently averaging 2.7 blocked shots over his last 10 games. When you add in the fact he’s also averaging 1.7 SOG over that same span and that he could see a minutes bump here, the production from McDonagh looks awfully tempting to target at just under $4.5K. He’s not likely for an offensive explosion, but he has recorded a couple of assists in this series with Tampa Bay’s offense coming alive with the return of Kucherov and Steven Stamkos ($6,400). The veteran is a good pay-down option to consider here.
Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens ($5,300)
Rielly has been a solid performer for the Maple Leafs through the first two games of the series vs. Montreal. The two-way defenseman has assists in three straight games and played over 23 minutes for the Leafs in Game 2, gaining a power-play assist and three blocked shots. Rielly has become more of an all-around producer this year, entering this game averaging 2.3 SOG and 1.7 blocked shots over the last 10 games. He’s very affordable here as a pivot off the very top defensemen and would be an essential part of any Leafs’ PP1 stack.
Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers ($4,600)
Pionk grabbed a power-play assist for the Jets in their last game and remains a part of their top power play unit. Winnipeg has converted on 40% of their power play chances in this series thus far, quickly taking advantage of a weak Oilers penalty kill unit. While he’s not a prolific goal-scorer, Pionk is locked in to play over 20 minutes a game right now and is averaging 2.1 SOG while seeing the most power-play minutes of any Jets defenseman. If you want to stack the WPG PP1, he’s an easy add-in here at a very affordable price.
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