Monday doesn’t have the biggest slate you’ll see in the MLB but we’ll talk about it anyways. Thanks.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lance Lynn, $9,300, Chicago White Sox (-170) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+150)— I don’t know why but Lynn is someone I almost never get behind backing. I literally have no rhyme or reason behind it but I’m sharing with all of you. Betting on the White Sox when he starts has a 4-3 record, so maybe I’m onto something here (I’m really not). We do have a bit of a difference from his ERA (1.55) to his FIP (3.05) but that’s splitting hairs a bit. Regardless of the difference, it’s still a very solid number.
Tonight he faces a Cardinals team that owns a .297 wOBA, a .157 ISO and a 89 wRC+ against righties. They don’t strikeout much either with a 23.1% K%, which ranks 21st in the league. Lynn will very much be in play because of the lack of options on this slate from a daily fantasy option. When it comes to betting the White Sox, they’ve been one of the best when favored, sporting a 24-11 record on the moneyline, covering 68.6% of the time. Only the Rockies have been better as favorites but in a much smaller sample at 7-2. The Cardinals are dead even on the moneyline as underdogs at 12-12.
Other notable favorite: Frankie Montas ($6,200; -165) vs. Seattle Mariners
Highest Projected Total
Baltimore Orioles (-110; 4.5 runs) at Minnesota Twins (-110; 4.5 runs) 9 runs —The lines are all even in this one as the Orioles face the Twins on the road. John Means ($10,200) will take on Matt Shoemaker ($5,800) in what feels like a mismatch but not according to the lines on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Orioles are 5-3 when Means takes the mound and only 2-6 with Shoemaker.
The Twins continue to thrive off left-handed pitching and that’s where I’m looking at in this game. On the season they have a 109 wRC+, a .326 wOBA and a .187 ISO. Means has been getting a bit lucky this season with an xERA of 3.14, which is quite the difference from his 1.70 ERA. Shoemaker, meanwhile, has simply been horrible and the numbers back that up. His xERA of 6.19 aligns almost perfectly with his 6.08 ERA. Home runs have been an issue and for a couple of years now and continues this season with 10 allowed in 40 innings. I think the over is very much in play, especially with a Twins team with a 30-15-1 record of hitting that mark.
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Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins - We could see some rain in this one after the game begins. It doesn’t look like a big overall threat but something to keep an eye on.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Shoemaker, .411, 7.34
Frankie Montas, .306, 3.11
Spencer Turnbull, .252, 3.38
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Blake Snell, .148, 1.04
Brandon Woodruff, .169, 1.69
Yusei Kikuchi, .179, 2.87
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Sam Hentges, .479, 7.95
Blake Snell, .372, 4.90
Frankie Montas, .368, 6.15
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
John Means, .212, 3.24
Brandon Woodruff, .219, 3.12
Lance Lynn, .225, 3.06
Pitcher to Build Around
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, $8,900 — In the career of Blake Snell, no one is going to look at his first two months as a Padre and speak about how great it was. It’s been extremely forgettable and one many would like to forget. Tonight, however, he has a great matchup against a Brewers team that provides plenty of strikeout upside. Carrying a 13.3 K/9, Snell has an opportunity to up that number against a team with a 28.1% K% against lefties to go with a .303 wOBA and a 91 wRC+. The recent addition of Willy Adames ($3,100) has only further upped their K%, as he has a 39.6% K% of his own against lefties. Snell won’t blow you away with his overall numbers but what he can potentially do against the Brewers could end up being a steal at $8,900.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles, $4,400 — When the Twins are facing a lefty, I’m always looking to get Donaldson in my lineup despite his salary. He’s a very affordable $4,400 and brings a .432 wOBA with a .226 ISO and a 180 wRC+ to the table against lefties this season. As I mentioned, Means has been getting a bit lucky on the mound and now faces arguably one of his toughest opponents yet. Means is also giving up a ton of fly balls this season and righties have a 48.1% FB% against him.
Save Big by Drafting
Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, $3,300 —Sticking with this game, I think it’s certainly in your benefit to target lefties against Shoemaker. As seen above, Shoemaker has allowed a .411 wOBA, a putrid 7.34 FIP and five of the 10 home runs he’s given up to lefties. As for Santander, he’s been making a quick impact since returning to the O’s lineup, going 6-for-13 with two doubles, a home run and two RBI in three games. Since the beginning of last season, Santander has a .363 wOBA, a .296 ISO and a 132 wRC+ against righties. He’s simply way too cheap.
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