All the DraftKings Sportsbook bets I’m eyeing on Monday are centered around left-handed pitchers. Two should do well, but the third one who has my attention should give up some hits.
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The Phillies had a pretty good day against Eduardo Rodriguez on Sunday, scoring four runs over four innings — an improvement from what they did in the series opener in Boston against Martin Perez (three runs in six innings). Still, there was a common theme between the two games. Both Red Sox left-handed starters had no issue racking up strikeouts against Philadelphia hitters (Rodriguez had six, Perez seven).
E-Rod is striking out hitters at a high rate and Perez is close to averaging one per inning, but neither have been on Rogers’ level this season. The Miami lefty is ranked eighth among MLB starters in strikeout rate and K/9, and he’s among the twenty best starters at getting pitchers to swing and miss at pitches out of the zone.
Rogers has hit the over on Monday’s prop six times in nine chances — punching out six each time he came up short. One of those six seven-plus strikeout performances came his last time out against this same Phillies team, which has the fourth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.
Just a few spots below the Phillies in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers are the Brewers at No. 8. While Philadelphia has to deal with Trevor Rogers, Milwaukee faces someone who has a better strikeout rate and K/9 in Snell.
But while Rogers has hit the over on his strikeout prop for Monday six out of nine times, Snell has done the inverse. That said, in three of the outings he came up short on Monday’s strikeout prop, Snell managed to strike out seven — each time being against teams that strike out at a lower rate against lefties than Milwaukee.
Snell hasn’t exactly been going deep into games, but he finally made it through six last time out. One may think that performance in San Diego was an outlier because it came against a Colorado team that’s devoid of offense, yet the Rockies rank third in wOBA and OPS against lefties and ninth in ISO. Of course, their games at Coors against lefties will help those numbers. Still, they’re not 19th or worse in wOBA, OPS or ISO against left-handers like the Brewers.
Snell’s innings will be there Monday, and his strikeouts with them.
Kikuchi was supposed to start in San Diego on Sunday, but the Seattle lefty got bumped because he was “a little under the weather for a couple days after his last outing,” per manager Scott Servais, which threw off his routine between starts. As much as the extra day may have helped in some ways, I like going after a guy who is very regimented but was recently thrown off course in any capacity.
Moreover, Kikuchi has hit the over on Monday’s prop six times in eight starts this season. So the only way he’s limiting this Oakland lineup to four or less hits is if he comes out early — something the Mariners’ bullpen cannot afford after their trip to San Diego. If Kikuchi doesn’t get bumped again, Seattle needs him to eat up a decent chunk of innings, even if he gets hit.
And it’s very much within the realm of possibility that Kikuchi gets hit around hard by the A’s. Oakland is 10th in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching and third in ISO.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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