Nine-game slate tonight. It’s Wednesday. Let’s go.
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Editor’s Note: Tonight’s games between TOR/NYY and COL/NYM have been postponed due to inclement weather.
DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tyler Glasnow, $10,500, Tampa Bay Rays (-225) vs. Kansas City Royals (+188)— Glasnow isn’t just the most expensive pitcher on this slate, he’s the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook as well. The Rays are 7-3 when he takes the mound, which he normally does in dominating fashion. He’s allowed no more than two runs in six of his 10 starts and has struck out at least 10 in five of them. He faces a Royals team that doesn’t strike out much with just a 23% K% but that also doesn’t do particularly well offensively with a .302 wOBA, a .150 ISO and a 91 wRC+ against righties.
This team does not hit the fastball well, ranked 26th in the league, which is a pitch Glasnow has thrown 52.5% of the time. They’re decent against the slider but I think it’s fair to say that Glasnow’s is on a completely different level than the majority of the league. The Rays have been a good team to back as favorites this season on the moneyline, going 13-10 while the Royals as underdogs are just 12-15.
Other notable favorite:
Domingo German ($9,600; -167) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Highest Projected Total
Atlanta Braves (+102; 4.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (-121; 5.5 runs) 10.5 runs — These teams were involved in the highest projected total last night but there was never a chance the over was going to be hit. After a quick 1-0 first inning, it was constant men on base turning into men jogging back to the dugout for the rest of the evening, ending with a final score of 3-1 in favor of the Red Sox. After that game, the Braves remain one of the better teams hitting the over at 25-21-2 while the Red Sox struggle at 23-25-1.
Tonight has a very good chance of hitting the over with Drew Smyly ($7,200) taking on Nick Pivetta ($8,700). Smyly is like Robbie Ray, he strikes out a ton of batters but gives up just as many runs. His 6.36 FIP is even worse than his 5.11 ERA and home runs have been flying out of the park in his start, as he owns a 2.68 HR/9. This Red Sox team is not just a good-hitting club against lefties but specifically at home. They boast a .357 wOBA, a .194 ISO and a 122 wRC+ against lefties at Fenway Park, so it’s no surprise to see them with a 5.5 team projection. I feel much better about this game going over than last night and would specifically target this game.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees - This game is going to be tough to get in. Once the rain arrives, it’ll be very slow-moving. Keep an eye on this one but this might be one to avoid.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Joe Ross, .396, 6.82
Jose Urena, .356, 3.52
Drew Smyly, .354, 4.54
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Glasnow, .217, 2.79
Trevor Bauer, .243, 3.52
Marcus Stroman, .257, 3.25
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Eric Lauer, .381, 6.05
Drew Smyly, .364, 7.03
Chris Paddack, .360, 3.52
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Trevor Bauer, .200, 2.48
Luis Garcia, .271, 4.33
Nick Pivetta, .272, 2.84
Pitcher to Build Around
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals, $10,500 — I do think we have a number of viable options on the slate for tonight but unfortunately the weather is going to be an issue. I really like using Marcus Stroman ($9,200) against the Rockies but I can’t make that decision until we get later into the evening. As stated, Glasnow is in a great matchup against the Royals who don’t strike out a ton but have some really poor offensive numbers across the board against righties. We’re also getting him at a bit of a discount since his last start when he was hit hard by the Blue Jays, resulting in a $700 decrease in salary. With how the potential weather disruptions are laid out, Glasnow may end up carrying massive ownership.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves, $5,700 — Speaking of ownership, Boagerts and the Red Sox team stack certainly won’t be overlooked. He continues to not get the attention he should be for his hitting, as he’s averaging 11.9 DKFP over his last 10 games with three home runs, three doubles, 10 RBI and two stolen bases over that span. Specifically, against lefties, Bogaerts boasts some immense power with a .231 ISO and a 162 wRC+. In a very, very favorable matchup against Smyly, Boagerts is the first hitter I’d be adding to my lineup.
Save Big by Drafting
Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros $4,200 — We all heard the hype leading up to Lux getting a starting position with the Dodgers and it looks like we’re in the midst of seeing what it was all about. Lux finally looks comfortable at the plate and is averaging 10 DKFP over his last 10 games. I love his matchup against Luis Garcia ($9,000) who has posted some poor numbers against lefties. Through 17 1/3 innings against them this season, Garcia has a .351 wOBA, a 5.28 FIP and four of the eight home runs he’s allowed. With numbers like that and Lux having a stellar month of May, he’s a solid option on the cheaper end to use.
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