Six games tonight. That’s one less than seven.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dylan Cease, $9,200, Chicago White Sox (-245) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+205)— The overwhelming favorite belongs in a game that likely won’t even happen. Thunderstorms are expected all throughout the evening in Chicago so this whole section could be a waste of time. But things change and maybe this game DOES play, so let’s pretend like it will.
On a slate without many good pitching options, Cease was the easy favorite against the Orioles. Despite his shaky command (4.7 BB/9) he sports a 3.24 FIP (3.18 ERA) with an 11.1 K/9 and only a 0.60 HR/9. The Orioles have not been a team to fear offensively against righties, as evidenced by a .286 wOBA, a .141 ISO and an 83 wRC+. They hover around league average in K% at 24.2% but I think it’s fair to say that Cease has above average strikeout upside, striking out at least six batters in six of his nine starts. In fact, his only game with double-digit strikeouts was against the Reds, who are ranked 22nd in K% vs. righties at 23.2%.
If this game somehow manages to get in, Cease is one of the best options on this slate, if it doesn’t expect the ownership to spread out amongst the rest of the slate, as it doesn’t feel like we have a chalky SP2.
Other notable favorite: Chris Bassitt ($8,300; -155) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Highest Projected Total
St. Louis Cardinals (-109; 4.5 runs) at Arizona Diamondbacks (-106; 5.5 runs) 9.5 runs — No projected double-digit totals tonight but the Cardinals and D-Backs come close at 9.5. The Cardinals are favored by a smidge against Seth Frankoff ($4,900), who is making just his third start of the season. Neither of these teams are particularly strong at hitting the over, with the Cardinals at 22-23-3 and the D-Backs at 24-25-1. Both teams haven’t been doing much offensively either, with the Cardinals averaging 2.2 runs over their last five games and the Diamondbacks at 2.8.
I can’t say I’m crazy about taking the over in this game. Neither starting pitcher is great by any means, as Carlos Martinez ($6,800) is set to take the mound of the Cardinals. He’s been good enough and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in four of his last five starts. What gets me is how poor both offenses have been and their struggles to hit the over. I think this game has some decent individual matchups to target but from a betting perspective, this is not a game I’m looking to go over on.
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Weather Notes
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox - Honestly, not sure if this game even plays tonight. Even if it does, it will get disrupted at some point. Unless the forecast changes dramatically during the day, I’d be avoiding this one.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Chris Flexen, .373, 4.29
Shohei Ohtani, .330, 6.40
Chris Bassitt, .301, 3.98
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Dylan Cease, .262, 3.79
Carlos Martinez, .286, 3.65
Sonny Gray, .293, 3.23
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Bruce Zimmermann, .374, 5.84
Sonny Gray, .371, 5.52
Chris Flexen, .360, 4.28
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Shohei Ohtani, .200, 1.30
Alex Wood, .231, 2.48
Stephen Strasburg, .272, 5.72
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Alex Wood, San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, $6,900 — I don’t know why Wood’s salary took such a dramatic dive since he was $10,000 the last time out but I’m not complaining. This is very much a salary play, as we’re getting a pitcher that has been nothing short of excellent and is now $3,100 cheaper. He’s facing the Dodgers for the second time this season and in his last start, held them to just two runs on eight hits and seven strikeouts through six innings. That gave him 17.5 DKFP, which wasn’t great at $10K but would have been excellent at his $6,900 salary. The Dodgers continue to be baffled by left-handed pitching and have just a 91 wRC+, a .296 wOBA and a .148 ISO. A copy and paste of that last start from Wood would be welcomed at this massive discount.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers, $5,300 — I’m a big fan of Haniger and I’m always looking to slot him into a lineup when he’s facing a lefty. He gets that tonight against Kolby Allard ($4,000), who is making a spot start. After missing all of last season, Haniger is back to crushing lefties and has a .376 wOBA with a .385 ISO (!) and a 147 wRC+. He’s a bit pricey but with how good he’s been against lefties all throughout his career, I’m pouncing on this matchup against a pitcher who induces a ton of contact.
Save Big by Drafting
Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, $3,600 — Sticking in this game, it’s comical that Garica is still only $3,600. He’s been a power machine for the Rangers and is tied for the league-lead in home runs with Vladimir Guerrero Jr at 16. He’s annihilating right-handed pitching with a .419 wOBA, a .340 ISO and a 172 wRC+. The fact that he’s not only under $4,000 but he’s at $3,600 is insane. Garica remains one of the best values on the board night after night.
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