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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for May 28

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

12 games will be played tonight. You’ll be setting your lineups and then partying because it’s a long weekend.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.

Editor’s Note: Tonight’s games between MIL/WAS and ATL/NYM have been postponed due to inclement weather.



DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Gerrit Cole, $11,200, New York Yankees (-250) vs. Detroit Tigers (+200)— Ah yes, here we go again. Another start for Cole to pad his strikeout numbers in.

He faces the Tigers for the second time this season after holding them to just four hits through six innings and striking out 12. In that game he generated 21 swings-and-misses, which accounted for 48% of the pitches thrown. Needless to say, the Tigers had no chance in this one. The Tigers continue to strikeout at a rapid pace against righties with a 27.6% K%, which is the second-highest in the league behind the NEW leader in baseball, the Giants.

The Yankees are 6-4 in Cole’s starts this season on the moneyline and 28-19 as favorites. Meanwhile, the Tigers, who are almost always underdogs (favored six times this season and went 2-4) are 17-27 on the moneyline.

Other notable favorite: Dallas Keuchel ($6,300; -230) vs. Baltimore Orioles


Highest Projected Total

Milwaukee Brewers (+106; 4.5 runs) at Washington Nationals (-122; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — Three games have at least a projected total of nine runs on DraftKings Sportsbook but as of this morning, this one had the most amount of juice on the over at -121. When you look at the pitching matchup between Brett Anderson ($7,500) and Jon Lester ($8,100) it’s easy to see why.

The Nationals are slight favorites in this one against the lefty Anderson. He’s a ground ball specialist who relies on contact for outs, which doesn’t always happen. The Nationals are one of the tougher teams to strikeout to begin with (23.1% K% vs. LHP) and have been hitting lefties extremely well. They have a .344 wOBA, a .151 ISO and a 116 wRC+ in these matchups. With Anderson sporting an xERA of 8.24 compared to his 4.34 ERA, it’s safe to say that his average pitching should be much worse than what the numbers indicate.

The Brewers are also very much in play as well against Lester. He was someone that would also induce a healthy does of ground balls but that hasn’t been the case thus far. He’s only induced them at a 34.6% clip. His command has been a bit shaky as well, as his BB/9 has climbed to 3.55. The Brewers aren’t a strong team against lefties with a .297 wOBA, a .146 ISO and a 94 wRC+ but Lester is by no means a power pitcher. This game has a very good chance of hitting the over even with the Nationals being the worst in the league at 14-29-3.


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Weather Notes

Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals - Really tough forecast here as the track of the storms will make or break this one. Regardless, it’s going to be wet so play this one with caution.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets - Rain will be in the area all night long with it getting worse as the night goes on. Even if this game is able to start, it gets dicey as the night goes on.

Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox - Same deal as in New York. This entire series could be in serious trouble, as it’s supposed to rain in Boston the entire weekend.

Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians - Cold, light rain and winds blowing IN at 20 mph. Could be a good game to target the under on but this should play barring a change.

Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox - Good chance for this game to start in a delay but once it’s cleared, should be good to go.


Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Justus Sheffield, .363, 4.21
Jordan Lyles, .360, 4.68
Dallas Keuchel, .360, 4.11

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Cody Poteet, .119, 3.39
Hyun-Jin Ryu, .201, 0.80
Gerrit Cole, .203, 1.50


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jon Lester, .384, 5.19
Matt Harvey, .377, 3.32
Jordan Lyles, .369, 5.32

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Shohei Ohtani, .200, 1.30
Taijuan Walker, .201, 2.46
Anthony DeSclafani, .211, 2.90


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers vs.San Francisco Giants, $10,400 — I’m trying to dance around all the weather issues for tonight, which is rather difficult to do. I really, really liked Ian Anderson ($9,700) going against the Mets but we’ll have to wait and see how the weather pans out for that one. Buehler is facing the Giants where we don’t have any weather concerns in LA. This Giants team has taken the league in K% against righties at 27.8% to go with a .310 wOBA, a .176 ISO and a 99 wRC+. Buehler just faced them in his last start and stuck out five through seven innings, which was a bit of a disappointment. On the plus side, he’s $600 cheaper than he was in that start. Prior to those five strikeouts, Buehler logged at least seven in five straight, so I feel it’s safe to say he could get back up to that number here.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, $5,400 — One of the big questions heading into this offseason was how Arenado would hit away from Coors Field for the entire season. At least through May 28th, he’s doing just fine. He continues to slay lefties like he always does and has an impressive .454 wOBA, a .303 ISO and a 194 wRC+ in those matchups. Now he faces Madison Bumgarner ($8,900) who came back down to Earth in his last start, coincidently, at Coors Field. Bumgarner has not fared well at home since joining the Diamondbacks and in the short sample we have of him this season, righties tagged him for a .331 wOBA.


Save Big by Drafting

Tommy Pham, San Diego Padres at Houston Astros, $3,500 — This is a fantastic salary play for someone that is red hot at the plate. After an extremely slow month of April, Pham is now averaging 10.2 DKFP over his last 10 games, which includes a home run, double, two triples, five RBI and three stolen bases. If we look at his advanced numbers from the last two weeks, Pham has a .399 wOBA, a .262 ISO and a 158 wRC+. For someone with numbers like that at just $3,500 and has historically hit lefties well, I’m all over this one.


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