The Leafs let us down in this spot for Game 6, but with the odds for a puck line cover still available at big prices, I like targeting them again here for some revenge. The Leafs likely should have lost Game 5 in regulation but were able to fight back against a shaky Canadiens squad that managed to find a miracle goal in OT. The Leafs feature the league's top goal scorer and the goalie with the best save percentage in the playoffs (Jack Campbell - .944). A quick start here by Toronto might be impossible to overcome for a Canadiens team that is last in goals scored per game in the playoffs.
The Isles’ second-line has been a solid source of production of late. Beauvillier comes into this game averaging 3.2 shots on goal over his past 10 games but still has solid plus-money odds attached to him here as the defensive Bruins are expected to push this into a tighter series. Considering how consistent Beauvilier has been in the second half of the year, though, taking the plus money odds looks fine here and OT between these two teams (they both played three OT games in the first round) is always on the table.
Top Line Stack
Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens
William Kerfoot ($3,500) — William Nylander ($5,900) - Alex Galchenyuk ($3,300)
The Leafs second line has generated a bunch of offense in this series giving them a clear edge in the offensive department. This line heads into game six with 15-points between them in the last five games and remains exceedingly cheap for the production they’ve given us over the series. William Kerfoot continues to fill in admirably in a second-line role and has been a good facilitator for William Nylander who has seen three of his four goals in this series come at even strength. Alex Galchenyuk has drifted between the first and second line in this series but has been productive over his last two games regardless of placement and has more motivation than anyone here with the game taking place in Montreal against the team who drafted him (and ultimately traded him away).
We have a couple of expensive studs to pay up for today but you get great correlation here by stacking this second line which has been the best in the series by far for fantasy production. Save the cash by going mid-tier value so you can stuff in players like Matthews and Pastrnak at other positions.
Superstar to Target
David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins vs. New York Islanders ($7,400)
The Bruins’ offense came alive at the end of their series with the Capitals and they should have a distinct top-end advantage against the Isles. Pastrnak had a slightly down year in terms of his production (22 goals in 53 games) but he looked dangerous all series against Washington and ended with 19 SOG in his last three games and four points (including two goals) in his last two games.
The Swede comes in averaging 4.8 SOG and at a salary level well below his season DraftKings average here. Bruins-Isles may have the slightly lower over/under attached to it, but given Pastrnak’s salary and his SOG production, he makes sense as the stud to target from this game given the insanely high floor he provides.
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Value on Offense
Brock Nelson, New York Islanders at Boston Bruins ($4,600)
Nelson was a huge part of the Isles’ offensive effort in their series win over the Penguins. The center grabbed three points in the final game of the series alone and had a point in four of the six contests. He’s worked well with winger Anthony Beauvillier ($5,300), who had three goals in the last series, and the two make for a good cheap stack with which to attack tonight. New York’s offense could benefit from their second-line resurgence and it’s worthwhile to keep targeting them in Game 1 as we have few options to choose from on a two-game slate.
Joel Armia, Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs ($3,400)
Armia finally came alive in Game 5, scoring two goals on a line with Tyler Toffoli ($6,000) and Nick Suzuki ($5,200). The line had been a disappointment up until Game 5, but they have two streaky scorers on the wing with Armia having proven in the past he can score in bunches when his shot heats up. He’s got a solid shooting percentage of 10% in these playoffs and has now launched seven SOG in the last two games. Targeting him for some continuation here isn't a poor idea if you’re looking for a winger with upside under $3.5K in price.
Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders at Boston Bruins ($7,300)
Sorokin’s been a great target for fantasy purposes of late as the Islanders’ goalie comes in having scored 19 or more DKFP in his four starts against the Penguins in the first round. Sorokin’s 4-0 record against Pittsburgh was impressive, but his save percentage is what really stood out as the rookie netminder was able to post a .943 save percentage over his four meetings with the Penguins. Boston has the better offense here, especially after adding depth piece Taylor Hall ($5,000) at the trade deadline, but the Islanders’ willingness to give up more shots in the playoffs so far means that Sorokin’s upside has been massive. At well under $7.5K, he gives you a ton of salary flexibility and is the preferred GPP target here for Game 1. The Isles head in as +160 underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook and that fact alone should keep Sorokin’s ownership levels down.
Value on Defense
T.J. Brodie, Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens ($3,400)
I mentioned Brodie in this slot against the Canadiens the last time these two teams played and while he didn't get on the scoresheet and remains with just two assists over his past 10 games, he did land five SOG and 11.8 DKFP in Game 5, which more than paid off his price. The former Flame is playing solid minutes on the Leafs' top defensive pairing, so while his offensive upside isn’t huge, as he doesn’t see a ton of power-play time, he does have the ability to grab you a piece of the bonuses on any given slate. He’s worth targeting again here as the Leafs look to close out this series and expect to rely on him for another solid 20-plus minutes of ice time.
Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins vs. New York Islanders ($5,300)
McAvoy had a solid showing for the Bruins against the Capitals, landing five power-play assists in the five-game series. He played over 25 minutes per game in each of the last four for the Bruins and has been contributing more as a shot-blocker lately as well, landing the blocked shot bonus twice in his past five games. Even despite a stout Isles penalty kill, McAvoy looks like a great target at well under $6K given the volume and his usage as the QB on the PP1, a spot he dominated against the Capitals. Look to him for good high-end value again in this series against the Islanders.
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