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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Targets, Values for May 3

Pearce Dietrich gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Monday’s fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings, which starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Monday features a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Extra Inning [$50K to 1st]


For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.


PITCHER

Stud

Editor’s note: Tonight’s game between the Cubs and Dodgers has been postponed due to inclement weather.

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs ($9,600) - The Cubs’ offense came to life yesterday, but that happens at Great American Ballpark (10 total home runs by the Cubs and Reds). The Cubs are a below average offense that strikes outs 26% of the time to right-handed pitching. Buehler struck out nine Padres (second-lowest K% against RHP) and then followed that with 10 strikeouts vs. the Reds. Home runs have been an issue with Buehler this season, but the weather will likely help Buehler keep the ball in the park.

Other Option: Tyler Glasnow ($10,300)

Value

Editor’s note: Tonight’s game between the Rockies and Giants has been postponed due to weather.

German Marquez, Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants ($7,100) - The ballpark is frightening, but the price is alluring. Marquez has been fine at Coors Field this season (3.53 FIP), and the strikeout upside is present (25.4% K rate over his last five starts). He draws a favorable matchup in the Giants (93 wRC+ and 26% K rate), but it’s not perfect because several Giants batters are off to a great start against right-handed pitching this season.


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CATCHER

Stud

Editor’s note: Tonight’s game between the Rockies and Giants has been postponed due to weather.

Dom Nunez, Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants ($4,900) - This isn’t rocket science. It’s Coors Field and a platoon advantage. Nunez has a .394 wOBA, .391 ISO, 136 wRC+ and 48% hard-contact rate against right-handed pitching this season. He’ll face a bad bullpen and a pitcher coming back from major surgery with a 4.46 xFIP.

Other Option: Salvador Perez ($5,200)

Value

Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($4,400) - Since the beginning of last season, Murphy has a .349 wOBA, .293 ISO and a 129 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Since the beginning of last season, Matz has allowed a .382 wOBA, .303 ISO and 3.4 HR/9 to right-handed batters. This season, Matz has improved, but his numbers against right-handed batters are suppressed by a low BABIP. His 4.93 xFIP against right-handed batters suggests that he’s worth targeting.

Other Option: Andrew Knapp ($3,200)

FIRST BASE

Stud

Pete Alonso, New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals ($5,300) - The expectations are high for Alonso. But, like many of the Mets, he is disappointing DFS players. Nothing is broken, it’s just bad luck. Alonso has 12 barrels and an average exit velocity of 97.3 mph this season. Adam Wainwright is expected to come off of the COVID-19 injury list and start Monday. That’s good news for Alonso because Wainwright has allowed a .379 wOBA, .228 ISO and 2.0 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season.

Other Option: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,400)

Value

Editor’s note: Keston Hiura was optioned to the Alternate Training Site prior to tonight’s game.

Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies ($3,700) - Steamer projected Hiura to have a .216 ISO this season, but he’s sitting at .120 so far. He looks miserable at the plate with a 36.5% K rate. If he’s going to turn it around, Monday would be a good day. Matt Moore has been awful in his return to Major League Baseball (.497 wOBA, .372 ISO and 3.5 HR/9 against RHP). If there is one shining spot for Hiura this season, it’s that he has a .214 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Other Option: Brandon Belt ($3,400)


SECOND BASE

Stud

Editor’s note: Tonight’s game between the Rockies and Giants has been postponed due to weather.

Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants ($5,100) - It’s a Coors slate and the Rockies are facing Aaron Sanchez and a Giants bullpen with a 4.91 xFIP. McMahon has a .374 wOBA, .282 ISO, 123 wRC+, and 47% hard-contact rate. As expected, most of this damage comes at home in Colorado (.330 wOBA and .304 ISO).

Other Option: Whit Merrifield ($5,400)

Value

Jonathan Villar, New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals ($3,400) - With J.D. Davis getting injured on Saturday, Villar stepped into a starting role on Sunday night and responded by getting two hits and scoring a run. Villar is very familiar with Adam Wainwright, and his BvP stats aren’t great, but that was a different Adam Wainwright.

Other Option: Matt Carpenter ($2,400)


THIRD BASE

Stud

Manny Machado, San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ($5,000) - Since the beginning of last season, Machado has a .387 wOBA, .235 ISO and a 145 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Machado’s numbers are down so far this season, but his xwWOBA is significantly higher than his wOBA, he has a 40% hard-contact rate and he has a nine barrels. He’ll turn it around soon, and Monday should be a good opportunity against a lefty with a 90 mph fastball.

Other Option: Justin Turner ($4,900)

Value

Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles ($4,200) - Against right-handed pitching this season, Seager has a .357 wOBA, .273 ISO, 138 wRC+ and a 48% hard-contact rate. That’s pretty good for this price. The deal gets even better when Dean Kremer is factored in (.450 wOBA and .400 ISO against LHB in 2021).

Other Option: Evan Longoria ($4,000)


SHORTSTOP

Stud

Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ($5,900) - He has the second-most home runs with 25 fewer bats than the leader. In 11 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season, he has a .589 wOBA and a .636 ISO. It’s a small sample size, but he’s facing a lefty with a pedestrian swinging-strike rate of 10% against right-handed batters and an xwOBA of .386. It’s not likely Tyler Anderson is going to strike out Tatis. When contact is made, it’s likely to be hard.

Other Option: Trevor Story ($5,600)

Value

Freddy Galvis, Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners ($3,100) - In 50 at-bats against right-handed pitching this season, Galvis has a .342 wOBA and a .240 ISO. His career wOBA against right-handed pitching is below .300, so this won’t last, but he should be good for one more night against Justin Dunn (6.07 xFIP, .356 wOBA and .242 ISO against LHB in 2021).

Other Option: Luis Urias ($3,400)


OUTFIELD

Stud

George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics ($5,500) - Frankie Montas is an explosive pitcher, for better or for worse. He can strike out double-digit batters, but hard pitching can lead to hard contact. Montas surrendered 1.7 HR/9 last season and he’s allowing 2.3 HR/9 this season, and he’s been particularly bad against right-handed batters (.421 wOBA, .312 ISO and 3.4 HR/9). Springer only has 11 at-bats against right-handed pitching this season, so the stats aren’t worth mentioning, but they are great. Since the beginning of 2020, Springer has a .398 wOBA, .302 ISO and a 160 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching.

Other Option: Byron Buxton ($6,100)

Value

Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers ($2,900) - Comparing xwOBA and wOBA is a good way of finding value (.530 xwOBA vs. .283 wOBA). The advanced metrics pointed towards a breakout for Kirilloff and it happened this weekend — he has homered in three straight games (four home runs total). This might be the last day to buy low.

Other Option: Dominic Smith ($4,200)

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Extra Inning [$50K to 1st]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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