Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards vs. Indiana Pacers, $11,000 - Per usual, Westbrook holds the top play honors at his position and is criminally underpriced. At a salary of $11,000, the superstar needs 55 DKFP to reach five-times value. Westbrook surpassed this threshold in 16 of his last 20 starts and should effortlessly provide value against this Pacers’ club that is dealing with a slew of key injuries.
They rank 18th in defensive rating across their last 15, and Westbrook will be back at home, where the point guard has produced 59.8 DKFP per game this season. That’s a 6.2 DKFP differential from when the Wizards have been on the road. As always, Westbrook is a building block for both cash games and GPPs.
Other Options: Stephen Curry ($10,800), Damian Lillard ($9,200), Lonzo Ball ($7,800)
Killian Hayes, Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic, $5,200 - Saturday night, Hayes started at point guard and finished with 31.5 DKFP in 32 minutes vs. the Hornets. The expanded role was a product of Cory Joseph (ankle), Mason Plumlee (rest), Jerami Grant (rest), Rodney McGruder (elbow) and Wayne Ellington (calf) all being unavailable for Detroit, and these five players have been listed as out again for Monday night.
The Pistons have played five contests without this group this season, and Hayes is averaging 26.2 DKFP in 30.4 minutes per game for this situation. Despite the increase to his salary, the Hayes remains a viable value play tonight, particularly against this Magic defense that sits at 26th in defensive rating over their last 10 games.
Other Options: Cole Anthony ($6,900), R.J. Hampton ($4,400), Ben McLemore ($3,300)
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Caris LeVert, Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards, $8,600 - With Malcolm Brogdon (questionable, hamstring) out Saturday, the Pacers decided to give LeVert the keys to the offense and start him at point guard. The end result was 42.75 DKFP in only 27 minutes of work for the former Net in the convincing 152-95 blowout win vs. the Thunder. Given how tricky hamstring injuries can be, Brogdon should sit out at least one more game, keeping LeVert in the point guard role for this up-tempo matchup vs. the Wizards.
With Westbrook at the helm, no team in the NBA plays at a faster pace than Washington, and LeVert’s high ceiling in this spot would be worth perusing if the hamstring keeps Brogdon sidelined Monday.
Other Option: CJ McCollum ($8,100)
Frank Jackson, Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic, $4,700 - With the Pistons so depleted Saturday, Jackson was a much-needed spark off the bench, posting a season-high 42.25 DKFP across 34 minutes vs. the Hornets. Just like with Hayes, Jackson’s price was adjusted following this strong effort, but the Duke product still rates as a fine value to attack with Detroit remaining extremely short-handed.
In those five tilts that Joseph, Grant and Plumlee have been inactive for this year, Jackson has held a very healthy 26.6% usage rate and provided 28 DKFP per game.
Other Options: Joe Ingles ($6,600), Lonnie Walker IV ($3,900)
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Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, $8,400 - Porter Jr. is never a chalky option and this trend will absolutely continue vs. the Lakers. Los Angeles is first in defensive efficiency this season, but that doesn’t mean the forward won’t be able to outproduce his salary tonight.
Since Will Barton went down with the hamstring injury, joining Jamal Murray (out, knee) and Monte Morris (out, hamstring) on the sidelines, Porter Jr. has stepped up as the Nuggets’ second option after Nikola Jokic, supplying 46.4 DKFP per game with a 27.1% usage rate. Spending up at small forward isn’t optimal for cash games tonight; but for GPPs, Porter Jr. should bring minimal ownership and is an excellent way to be contrarian.
Other Option: Bradley Beal ($9,500)
Kent Bazemore, Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans, $5,200 - Bazemore is always a strong choice when Kelly Oubre Jr. (out, wrist) is absent, especially in a terrific matchup like Monday’s. The Pelicans are a bottom-five defense based on efficiency, and Bazemore has collected 31.4 DKFP per game with Oubre missing the last two for Golden State.
This tilt between the Warriors and the Pelicans is one of the top contests to attack Monday, considering its large 236.5 O/U game total on DraftKings Sportsbook, and Bazemore is an appealing, cheap way to gain exposure to this projected shootout at the brutally thin small forward position.
Other Options: Saddiq Bey ($5,900), Gary Harris ($4,300), Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,100)
Julius Randle, New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies, $10,300 - Randle should have a field day against this terrible Memphis interior defense. With them giving up the third-most rebounds per game over their last 10, we have seen opposing big men feast in this spot, and Randle just recorded 49.5 DKFP against the Grizzlies on April 9.
Plus, Nerlens Noel sprained his ankle Sunday night vs. the Rockets. If the center is out Monday, Randle would see some more minutes at the five spot, naturally helping his rebounding numbers. Nevertheless, Randle’s incredible 2020-21 season should continue with a performance over 50 DKFP on Monday.
Other Options: Zion Williamson ($10,000), Anthony Davis ($9,700), Draymond Green ($7,000)
Moritz Wagner, Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, $4,600 - Wagner just joined the Magic three games ago, but has already been asked to handle a sizable workload with Chuma Okeke (ankle) on the shelf. With the power forward missing the past two, Wagner has started in his place and contributed 27.75 DKFP per game on 31 minutes a night. Okeke has already been confirmed out ahead of Monday’s game, keeping Wagner in the healthy role against the beat-up Pistons.
The 24-year-old scores 0.96 DKFP per minute and is a safe investment for 25-30 DKFP against this Detroit defense that is surrendering the third-most points in the paint per game this season.
Other Options: Oshae Brissett ($6,700), Thaddeus Young ($6,100 - if Nikola Vucevic is out), Kyle Kuzma ($5,200), Doug McDermott ($4,000), Georges Niang ($3,800)
Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards, $9,800 - Sabonis returned to the lineup Saturday night after missing six straight for Indiana, and the All-Star did not disappoint, going off for a 26-point, 19-rebound and 14-assist triple-double (75.75 DKFP) in the 57-point rout vs. the Thunder. Now comes a gorgeous matchup with high-speed Wizards, and Sabonis is an outstanding target Monday that would become a priority in the likely event Brogdon is held out.
Sabonis embarrassed Washington for 61.3 DKFP back in March and is averaging 1.4 DKFP per minute in the time he has played sans Brogdon, Myles Turner (out, toe), T.J. Warren (out, foot) and Victor Oladipo (now with Miami) this season.
Other Options: Nikola Jokic ($10,900), Joel Embiid ($10,600), Clint Capela ($8,700)
Daniel Gafford, Washington Wizards vs. Indiana Pacers, $4,400 - Gafford is contributing 23.5 DKFP per game in his past two and is a compelling sleeper to consider against the depleted Pacers. With many of their key players injured recently, most notably Turner, Indiana has yielded the most points in the paint and most rebounds per game in entire league over its last 10.
Assuming Gafford sees over 20 minutes for the third straight tilt, he should have no issues exceeding five-times value in this mouthwatering spot. In the five contests the center has received a minimum of 20 minutes since joining the Wizards, Gafford is amassing 31.6 DKFP per game.
Other Options: Isaiah Stewart ($6,300), Guillermo Hernangomez ($5,200 - if Steven Adams is out), Taj Gibson ($3,100 - if Nerlens Noel is out and Gibson starts)
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