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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for May 3

Steve Buchanan breaks down Monday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

This is the first Cheat Sheet for May. It’s also a Monday. Yipee.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.


DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Editor’s note: Tonight’s game between the Cubs and Dodgers has been postponed due to inclement weather.

Walker Buehler, $9,600, Los Angeles Dodgers (-195) at Chicago Cubs (+165) There is a lot to like in this start for Buehler. The Cubs have one of the highest K% in the league against righties at 26.7% to go with a .307 wOBA, a .171 ISO and a 93 wRC+. While the overall numbers against righties aren’t all that impressive, these numbers have gone up dramatically. With that said, Buehler has been stellar aside from his last start against the Reds. Despite giving up five runs on on seven hits, he still struck out 10 through 6 13 innings. Before that, he hadn’t allowed more than two runs in four starts while striking out 21. He should also receive plenty of run support in this, as Kyle Hendricks ($6,500) continues to get hammered on the mound, allowing seven runs on 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings his last time out. This should be a great spot for Buehler.

Other notable favorite: Kenta Maeda ($7,800; -190) vs. Texas Rangers


Highest Projected Total

Editor’s note: Tonight’s game between the Rockies and Giants has been postponed due to weather.

San Francisco Giants (+105; 4.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (-124) 10 runs Taking the over at Coors Field hasn’t been all that profitable so far. The Rockies have played played 15 games at home this season and the over is only 6-8-1. Their offense is so incredibly bad that the over is simply not hitting at the rapid pace were used too. I’m no convinced that tonight is going to change that.

If anything, I’m a fan of using Aaron Sanchez ($7,300). He had a hell of a month of April, tossing 24 1/3 innings allowing six runs on 17 hits while striking out 20. These type of numbers don’t exactly equate to high fantasy outputs, as Sanchez averaged only 14 DKFP. With that said, he did just hold these Rockies to two runs on one hit with six strikeouts and five walks. The walks are a concern but to this point, it was the most he allowed in a start. With the way he’s been pitching, I think he’s a decent punt option at pitcher. The Rockies have good power numbers at home with a .230 ISO but the 85 wRC+ is all you need to see to know the TRUTH!

I’m not going out of my way to target this game from an offense standpoint.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Extra Innings [$50K to 1st]


Weather Notes

Editor’s note: Tonight’s game between the Rockies and Giants has been postponed due to weather.
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies - As of this morning, very legitimate chance this game doesn’t play due to rain. Winds blowing out toward right at 15mph.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs - The timing of the rain will be everything for this one. This could end up being a late start but again, make sure to check before first pitch.
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals - Another possible late start but it does clear out once the rain ends.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies - Cold, miserable day at Coors (not great for hitting, great for Aaron Sanchez). Rain will be in the area all throughout the night.


Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kenta Maeda, .471, 7.33
Walker Buehler, .371, 4.96
Frankie Montas, .332, 2.97

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Glasnow, .151, 0.92
Dane Dunning, .247, 2.27
Aaron Civale, .262, 4.85


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Frankie Montas, .421, 8.17
Kenta Maeda, .396, 4.93
Adam Wainwright, .378, 4.57

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Walker Buehler, .200, 1.75
Aaron Sanchez, .203, 2.85
Tyler Glasnow, .235, 2.37


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Editor’s note: Tonight’s game between the Cubs and Dodgers has been postponed due to inclement weather.

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs, $9,600Despite a number of teams playing tonight, the options at pitcher feel extremely limited. As we talked about, I really like using Buehler here but the ownership is going to be there as well. Even with the Cubs picking it up offensively, the strikeout upside is one of the best on the slate. The Cubs rank fourth in the league in K% against righties at 26.7%. We have to watch how the weather pans out in this one but if all is good, he’s my favorite option.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Manny Machado, San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $5,000 — Machado has been showing some flashes of getting out of his slow start. He’s averaging 7.4 DKFP over his last five games which includes a triple, home run and six RBI. Tonight he faces the lefty Tyler Anderson ($7,000), which is always a matchup I will target him. Dating back to last season, Machado has a .387 wOBA, a .235 ISO and a 145 wRC+ against lefties. Anderson has a .316 wOBA, a 4.01 FIP and all three of the home runs he’s allowed against righties in his five starts as a Pirate.


Save Big by Drafting

Willie Calhoun, Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, $3,000 — It’s remarkable that Calhoun is still so cheap. He’s riding a nine-game hitting streak that has seen him average 9.2 DKFP in. He’s not hitting for a ton of power but he’s getting on base and thus has seen him score seven runs in that span. I’m not sure what to make of the early season struggles for Kenta Maeda ($7,800) but lefties have been having their way with him. They’ve tagged him for a .471 wOBA, a 7.33 FIP and four of the seven (!) home runs he’s already allowed. At just $3K, this is a no-brainer.


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