Here are some plays that jump out on DraftKings at each position for Monday’s NBA slate, along with some strategy unique to this slate.
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Worth Paying Up For: Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards vs. Indiana Pacers ($11,000)
I was very tempted to go with Lonzo Ball ($7,800) since he’s gone for at least 60 DKFP in two of the last three games and is over $3,000 cheaper, but I just couldn’t do it. The floor-ceiling combo is just too high with Westbrook. Over his last 10 games, he’s gone for at least 50 DKFP in nine of those games, with six above 60 and two of those north of 70. Ball averages 1.07 DKFP per minute while Westbrook is at 1.5. The Pacers play at the fourth-fastest pace, and the last time he faced them (March 29), Westbrook laughably put up 94.5 DKFP on them. Granted, Bradley Beal ($9,500) did not play in that one — still, that’s insane. DK Sportsbook has the Wizards favored by four points with the O/U at a robust 245.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Jordan Poole, Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans ($4,500)
Over the last six games, Poole has played 25, 25, 21, 22, 16 and 25 minutes, contributing 32.25, 25.75, 15.75, 20.75, 7.75 and 34.25 DKFP, respectively. He’s a significant part of the rotation and has ceiling potential despite not getting a full allotment of minutes. There’s room for more, though, since Andrew Wiggins ($7,100) is questionable Monday. Wiggins hasn’t missed a game all year, and we don’t know how Steve Kerr will handle the rotations, but Poole seems the likeliest to step into his role. On the season, he’s averaging 0.96 DKFP per minute. The game environment should also be a good one since the Pelicans are ninth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency.
Worth Paying Up For: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards vs. Indiana Pacers ($9,500)
Whether you pay up for the studs or roster ancillary pieces, you’re going to want a piece of this game. The pace and environment are just too juicy. Over the last 12 games, Beal has attempted at least 20 shots in all but one of those games. He’s a professional hucker and chucker, but he’s no bricklayer, converting 47% of his attempts from the field and 36% from downtown. He’s gone for at least 40 DKFP in 10 of those contests, three being 50-burgers. If for some reason you’re worried about both Beal and Westbrook going off in the same game, there have been 14 games this season when both put up at least 50 DKFP in the same game.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Seth Curry, Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls ($3,900)
Over the last five games, Curry has averaged 26.7 minutes, 14.2 points and 9.2 field goal attempts per game. Here’s the thing, though: four of those games were blowouts (38, 31, 44 and 22-point wins). In Philly’s most recent game, with the final margin of victory just two points, Curry played 36 minutes and went for 35.75 DKFP. DK Sportsbook has the 76ers favored by six points, so this game could stay competitive.
Worth Paying Up For: DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz ($8,300)
EDITOR’S NOTE: Dejounte Murray (knee) is not listed on the injury report for tonight’s game vs. the Jazz.
The matchup isn’t great since the Jazz are third in defensive efficiency, but they do boost the FPPM of small forwards by 1.5% above league average. In addition, since Derrick White went down with an injury, DeRozan played 41, 35 and 42 minutes, producing 61.75, 38, and 55 DKFP, respectively. His usage rate during those games was 33, 23 and 32%, respectively — well above his season average of 26%. Now, Dejounte Murray ($7,400) didn’t play on Sunday and
is questionable Monday. If he’s unable to go, then more usage should flow toward DeRozan, who is well-rested since he didn’t play on Sunday either.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Kent Bazemore, Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans ($5,200)
Kelly Oubre Jr. and Eric Paschall are out, so Bazemore should see all the minutes he can handle. Over the last three games, he’s played 29, 33 and 35 minutes, contributing 28.2, 34.5 and 52.5 DKFP, respectively. He thrives in up-tempo game environments, so Monday’s game is right up his alley. The Pelicans are ninth in pace and, to make things juicier, are 27th in defensive efficiency.
Worth Paying Up For: Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards ($8,900)
Sabonis returned from a six-game absence and went for a whopping 75.75 DKFP vs. the Thunder on Saturday in only 30 minutes of action, as the Pacers demolished OKC by 57 points. This is the best game environment on the slate, so there should be plenty of possessions in this one to accumulate those fantasy goodies. Sabonis does it all and has seven triple-doubles on the season. There’s a good chance he gets No. 8 today.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Taj Gibson, New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies ($3,100)
Mitchell Robinson has been out for 18 games. Nerlens Noel ($5,100) sprained his ankle last night and is questionable Monday. With this being a back-to-back, I don’t think Noel plays in this one. Tom Thibodeau probably couldn’t sleep last night because the adrenaline was flowing throughout his body due to the prospect of playing Gibson for over 30 minutes vs. Memphis. Gibson averages 0.79 DKFP per minute and has played over 30 minutes in four games this season. He went for 12.25, 27.5, 12 and 29.5 DKFP in those games. I know, not exciting, but minutes are minutes. Plus, the Grizzlies boost the FPPM of centers by 16.27% above the league average.
Worth Paying Up For: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers ($10,900)
Jokic averages 1.6 DKFP per minute. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid average more. Jokic is a threat to log a triple-double on any given night, and matchups don’t really mean anything for him. The only things that stop him are blowouts, where he doesn’t get much playing time, and poor shooting performances, which rarely happen. In two prior meetings vs. the Lakers, he went for 33.75 and 64.5 DKFP. He shot 6-for-16 in one of those games. On the season, Jokic has shot less than 50% in only 13 games. That’s insane.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Guillermo Hernangomez, New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors ($5,200)
This recommendation is predicated on the health of Steven Adams ($4,700), who has missed three of the last four games and is questionable for Monday. If Adams out, then Hernangomez will get the start. In the three games he’s started for Adams, he played 31, 28 and 27 minutes, producing 33, 33, and 30.5 DKFP, respectively. Consistent, he is (as Yoda would put it). On the season, Hernangomez averages 1.07 DKFP per minute.
Overall Lineup Strategy
Three games jump out from a game-environment perspective: IND-WAS, GS-NO and POR-ATL. The IND-WAS game will likely garner the highest ownership, but there are definitely viable pivots in the other two games. Of course, injury news will determine much of the slate, with the big ones being Nikola Vucevic, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Noel, Murray, Wiggins, and Adams.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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