Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers, $11,100
When looking at the high-priced point guards on this slate, Doncic is the only one you can confidently say will hit value. He’s gone for at least 5.8X in every game, seeing a usage rate around 47% over the past two. That’s downright insane, and there’s no stopping now with Dallas up 2-1, looking to put its foot on the Clippers’ throat at home.
There are better matchups out there than the Clippers, but it’s important to look at the minutes distribution for Los Angeles last game. Patrick Beverley ($3,500) didn’t even make it to six minutes played, meaning the weaker defender in Reggie Jackson was guarding Luka for most of the game. We’ll happily take that here.
Other Options: James Harden ($10,500)
Derrick Rose, New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks, $6,800
I’m not sure if Rose counts as a value anymore at this price — the highest we’ve seen so far for him in the postseason — but I’m still going to look to get as much exposure to him as I can.
In the postseason, when rotations change constantly as coaches try to make adjustments for their losing teams, it’s hard to find a guy as consistent as the Knicks point guard. He’s played 38 minutes per game in this series, and he’s returned at least 6X value in all of those. He’s become a focal point of the offense, given the autonomy to take any shot he wants and taking advantage to the tune of a 27% usage rate last game. He will be heavily involved here, and I still think he’s worth firing up at $6,800 due to the heavy run he’s getting.
Other Options: Dennis Schroder ($5,900), Reggie Jackson ($4,400)
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Paul George, Los Angles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, $8,600
It appears Playoff P could be back in our lives. George has scored at least 28 points in back-to-back games as the Clippers continue to throw everything they’ve got at the Mavericks. George is far too cheap considering the surprisingly high level he’s been playing at; I’ll take the guy locked into 40-plus minutes with this kind of scoring ability who’s actually showing a pulse any day of the week. It’s important to remember here that despite being down in the series, the Clippers still have one of the most efficient offenses of any playoff team, so don’t shy away from targeting some of these guys.
Reggie Jackson, Los Angles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, $4,400
As previously mentioned, the Clippers' offense is a good one to target here against a Dallas defense that’s been wavering all series (and all season) long. Jackson appears to have a stranglehold on the starting position at point guard, bumping Beverley down to those aforementioned five minutes and change in Game 3 and possesses a ton of talent on the offensive end for this low price. The guy’s never seen a shot he hasn’t liked, and I generally like getting those types of guys in my lineup because you won’t lose points for missed jumpers or a low field goal percentage. Jackson has taken exactly 12 shots over each of the past two games, scoring 15.5 points, and should be in line for another great offensive night.
Other Options: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,600)
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, $9,200
This probably constitutes a Clippers stack now, but if there’s one member of this team you get in your lineup you’re going to want it to be Kawhi. He’s a must-start at this point, flirting with 60 DKFP in each of LA’s first three playoff games. I’ll be the first one to admit, I’ve hated playing Leonard in DFS all season long due to his passiveness on offense — he was a much better real-life player than fantasy player — but that’s all changed in the postseason. His usage sat in the mid-to-low twenties all month before ratcheting up to around 30% in the postseason. He’s the Clippers’ go-to option on offense at this point and should show up again here in a must-win game.
Other Options: Kevin Durant ($9,900), LeBron James ($9,700)
Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers, $5,500
Hardaway can be filed under the Reggie Jackson category of guys who won’t hesitate to put up shots. The wing has taken roughly 14 shots per game this series and has seen his minutes increase to 38-plus over the past two. He possesses a shot-making ability that you just can’t find elsewhere in this value range, and he’s probably a safe bet to improve upon his 4-for-14 performance in Game 3.
Other Options: RJ Barrett ($5,800)
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets, $9,800
Yes, Tatum is going to be a popular player with folks trying to chase his 50-point night, but I’m skeptical as to how many will pay this kind of price for the wing. The fact of the matter is that Tatum is afforded the ability to take any shot he wants, and probably has the softest matchup on the slate with the Nets reminding us how poor they are on defense in Game 3. He’ll see the minutes and get the shots needed to hit or even exceed value at this price, so why can’t he against this faulty defense?
Maxi Kleber, Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers $4,100
What does Kleber need to do to get some respect around here? This guy’s been entrusted with crunch time minutes and big shots for the Mavericks, so it’s no surprise to see him out there for upwards of 35 minutes in this series. Kleber’s offensive talent is evident, and he’s hit seven threes in the three games against Los Angeles to go along with a healthy dose of rebounds. His floor is definitely somewhat low given his reliance on points and nothing else, but I’m as confident in him as with any value play. This could be an easy 5X.
Other Options: Taj Gibson ($4,300)
Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
Ah yes, it’s about time I recognize the humble Lakers. I don’t think any center on the slate has as much upside as Davis, and while he hasn’t looked like the best version of himself, he has still scored 34 points in back-to-back games, pulled down double-digit rebounds and hit roughly 50% of his shots. It’s pretty insane to think he could improve upon these performances, but I think there’s still plenty of room for improvement in the shooting and play-making departments.
Other Options: Deandre Ayton ($6,700)
Tristan Thompson, Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets, $5,200
This is a throwback to the regular season when “value” was just whichever bench player was thrust into the starting lineup due to injury. I don’t want to disrespect the veteran by calling him a “bench player,” but Thompson is going to see a lot of run here with Robert Williams likely to be out of the lineup. He’s continued to improve with each game in this series, peaking with 37.1 DKFP in Game 3, and should have another great performance here given Brooklyn’s horrible play in the frontcourt. He’s my favorite play of the day.
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