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The long weekend is coming to a close (booooo) and MLB is loaded with afternoon games. Nice.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Carlos Rodon, $10,100, Chicago White Sox (-170) at Cleveland Indians (+150)— The most expensive pitcher on this slate is also one the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook this afternoon. This is Game 1 of the double-header, so it’s worth noting this will be a seven inning game,
Rodon will be seeing the Indians for the third time this season and has completely silenced them, going 14 innings allowing just two runs (one earned) on three hits and 15 strikeouts, good for an average of 36.1 DKFP in those starts. Specifically, Rodon has a .157 wOBA, 3.19 FIP and a 28.8% K%. In his seven starts, Rodon has scored no less than 24.5 DKFP in all but one, when he was hit hard by the Royals back on May 15. Against an Indians team without one of their best hitters against lefties in Franmil Reyes, this team currently has a .293 wOBA, a .155 ISO, an 85 wRC+ and a 22.2% K% against lefties. No need to worry about the shortened game, this is a fantastic spot for Rodon.
Other notable favorite: Corbin Burnes ($9,900; -250) vs. Detroit Tigers
Highest Projected Total
Boston Red Sox (-107; 4.5 runs) at Houston Astros (-113; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — Two games on this slate have an over/under of nine runs but this game had a bit more juice on the over. The Astros have been one of the best teams in the league hitting the over, going 33-17-2, covering 66% of their games. They’ve been just as good as the home team at 18-11. The Red Sox struggle with the over overall at going just 24-27-2 and 10-13 as the away team.
The Astros are the slightest of slight favorites for this one as they face Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,200), who has been struggling this season. It’s fair to say he’s been more unlucky than anything, as his 5.06 ERA is a big difference from his 3.51 FIP. All of his other numbers look good, especially with his command. Home runs have been a bit of a problem but that’s truly all we can point too. The problem in this start will be an Astros team that doesn’t strikeout and crushes lefties. To go with the lowest K% in the league at 17.1%, they boast a .340 wOBA, a .160 ISO and a 123 wRC+ against southpaws. I would feel more comfortable taking the Astros team total than the overall game total in this one.
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Weather Notes
Hey, no weather issues for a change!
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Berrios, .398, 4.27
Jameson Taillon, .387, 5.39
Dylan Bundy, .381, 5.26
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Carlos Rodon, .075, 0.41
Corbin Burnes, .214, 1.28
Jose Urquidy, .228, 2.96
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jorge Lopez, .366, 5.53
Eduardo Rodriguez, .354, 3.46
Chris Paddack, .344, 4.11
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes, .168, 0.89
Carlos Rodon, .229, 2.42
Jose Berrios, .230, 2.67
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers, $9,900 — This is the dream matchup, right? Getting a player with a 14.37 K/9 and an 18.9% swing-and-miss rate up against a club with a 27.1% K%, a .296 wOBA, and a .142 ISO against righties. Oh, and they’ll also be losing the DH because it’s in a National League park.
That’s what we get this afternoon when Burnes takes on the Tigers. Burnes has struck out at least nine batters in all but one start this season. His last start against the Padres, who are one of the toughest teams to strikeout, he “only” managed seven through six innings. The Tigers have been a team we’ve picked on all season long for strikeouts and today should be no different. Burnes has a five pitch arsenal but mainly focuses on his cut fastball. Wouldn’t you know it, the Tigers rank dead last against that pitch. My goodness, this should be a show.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, $5,400 — Meadows is absolutely crushing the ball right now and draws a very enticing matchup against Jameson Taillon ($7,300). Over his last 10 games, Meadows is averaging a massive 13.4 DKFP with three home runs, four doubles, a triple and 14 RBI. This type of production plays in very well with the struggles that Taillon has had against lefties, posting a .387 wOBA with a 5.39 FIP and five of the nine total home runs he’s given up. The Rays only have a 3.5 implied team total for this game but I think the growing sentiment is that they’ll go over that, especially with the line moving to -136.
Save Big by Drafting
Wil Myers, San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, $3,200 — Myers feels like one of the best values on the board, as he’s finally starting to do some damage at the plate. After slumping almost the entire month, Myers is now 6-for-14 with a double, two home runs and six RBI over his last three games. Today, he and the Padres are expected to take on on Kohl Stewart ($4,000) who hasn’t pitched in the majors since since 2019. When he did with the Twins, he allowed 18 runs on 29 hits with just 10 strikeouts through 25 1/3 innings.
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