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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for May 4

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

For whatever reason, Star Wars is the big theme in baseball today. I hate Star Wars. So I’m not participating. Let’s read today’s Cheat Sheet, shall we?

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Editor’s Note: Cubs SP Adbert Alzolay will not start tonight’s game vs. the Dodgers. RP Keegan Thompson will start in his place.

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ryan Weathers, $8,000, San Diego Padres (-220) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+180)— This feels like more of a testament of how bad the Pirates offense has been. Yes, Weathers has been good in his six appearances but to be such a huge favorite seems a bit odd. Then, of course, we take a look at the offensive numbers for the Pirates and it starts to make more sense. Against lefties, this team has just a .277 wOBA, a .123 ISO and a 75 wRC+. They strikeout plenty as well with a 24.8% K%. With Mitch Keller ($6,700) taking the mound for the Pirates, who has horrific control and a 5.25 FIP, the Padres should tee off on him early.

From a daily fantasy perspective, I’d be cautious on taking Weathers. It’s not as if the matchup is bad but we haven’t seen him throw more than 5 23 innings and has only pitched more than two innings twice. He’s been able to rack up fantasy points quickly, as he logged an incredible 23 DKFP against the Dodgers in just 5 23 innings. I don’t know how deep they’ll let him go, especially when he’s been having arm issues leading up to this start. Nonetheless, the Padres are the biggest favorites on this slate and rightfully so.

Other notable favorite: Jacob deGrom ($11,100; -210) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Highest Projected Total

Detroit Tigers (+155; 3.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (-180; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — This could end up being a very lopsided win for the Red Sox against one of the worst pitching staffs in the league. Michael Fulmer ($6,300) has been one of the “better” starters for the Tigers but trust me, that’s not saying much. His issue has mostly been home runs, which he sports a 1.3 HR/9 through 21 innings of work. Where the biggest opportunity will come is against this bullpen, which has been the worst in the league. The Tigers relievers have a combined 5.47 FIP, a 5.2 BB/9, a 1.9 HR/9 and and .327 BABIP. Truly, just horrific numbers from top to bottom. This bullpen should be used heavily as well, as Fulmer hasn’t gone more than five innings in a game and no more than four innings in three straight appearances.

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Weather Notes

Houston Astros at New York Yankees - Rain will move in during the game and likely cause a delay or even worse. This is a risky game and should only be used in tournaments.

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies - Likely this game will start in a delay but once the rain clears, they should be good. Still worth a check before the game locks.

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals - Same scenario as in Philly.

Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Mitch Keller, .407, 5.01
Adbert Alzolay, .315, 4.91
Zack Greinke, .309, 3.30

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Huascar Ynoa, .177, 1.52
Nick Pivetta, .203, 3.03
Trevor Bauer, .209, 3.97

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Joe Ross, .369, 5.85
Jorge Lopez, .360, 5.74
Nick Pivetta, .351, 4.49

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .142, -0.26
Adbert Alzolay, .202, 2.75
Trevor Bauer, .227, 3.16

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Trevor Bauer, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs, $10,700 — No one would fault you for taking deGrom tonight but the weather has me a bit concerned. I really like this spot for Bauer, as I did Walker Buehler last night before it was rained out. The Cubs rank fourth in the league in K% against righties at 26.7%. We know the immense strikeout upside that Bauer brings, as he’s logged at least nine strikeouts in four of his six starts on the year. This offense has picked it up as of late but can be overpowered by someone like Bauer. I like him the most in this range, as Aaron Nola ($10,400) at just $300 less feels quite overpriced for someone that hasn’t reached over 20 DKFP in all but one of his starts.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $5,400 — I will almost always get Hoskins in my lineup when he’s facing a lefty. When that lefty is Eric Lauer ($7,300) then I really want to roster Hoskins. We haven’t seen Lauer much over the past two seasons so when he pull back his numbers in his career, he has a .324 wOBA with a 4.15 FIP and 27 of the 37 home runs he’s allowed. Meanwhile, Hoskins against lefties has always been a split to target as well. So far this season, Hoskins has an impressive .462 wOBA with a .419 ISO and three of the eight home runs he’s hit early in the season.

Save Big by Drafting

Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles, $3,400 — The salary for Lewis is slowly starting to creep up, as the reigning American League Rookie of the Year is riding a five-game hitting streak. It’s only a matter of time before we really start to see him explode offensively and for tonight, a matchup against Jorge Lopez ($6,800) could do the trick. Opposing righties have already tagged him for a .360 wOBA, a 5.74 FIP and four of the six home runs he’s allowed through 21 2/3 innings. The power hasn’t shown up for Lewis as of yet but facing a contact pitcher like Lopez doesn’t hurt at all.

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