The Wells Fargo Championship has given way to some breakout wins and longshots. Since 2013, three golfers (2013: Derek Ernst, 2016: James Hahn, 2019: Max Homa) have won at +50000 odds. Over the previous five years (excluding Brian Harman in 2017 at Eagle Point), the average winning odds is +21800, with the shortest coming from Rory McIlroy at +300 in 2015.
With two weeks before the PGA Championship, ten of the world’s top 15 golfers are in attendance, including four of the top 5. This should anchor the top of the board, barring any unforeseen withdraws. Like I mentioned earlier, this course has produced some breakout wins for players to either get their careers started or revive them. This week’s betting card should feature more longshots than usual, especially when the rough isn’t penal and the overarching statistic correlated to success is Off-the-Tee.
As mentioned in the DraftKings Preview article, Zalatoris plays well in difficult scoring conditions and relatively strong fields. Even though he still doesn’t have eligibility on the PGA TOUR — or a win — his number is still indicative of how well he’s playing, ranking 15th in SG: Total and third in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds. He’s averaging 307.6 yards Off-the-Tee, which should be enough to navigate Quail Hollow’s long test of golf this week. It’s only a matter of time before he wins on TOUR, and this week could very well be the first of many.
Another player on top of leaderboards consistently this season is Matt Wallace. He recorded a third-place finish at the Valero Texas and a top 20 at the RBC Heritage just a couple of weeks ago. Another top 20 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a fourth at the Memorial Tournament last season prove Wallace has the potential to do well here, especially when he’s gaining an average of 4.9 strokes Tee-to-Green over his previous five tournaments.
Like Zalatoris, EVR was someone I wrote about in the Preview Article as a DFS play this week. He’s been solid driving the ball, gaining in three of his previous four tournaments Off-the-Tee, and he had top 25 finishes at both Muirfield Village and Winged Foot last season, two longer courses. He’s struggled a touch with his irons, losing strokes in his last two events through approach, but he still managed to finish inside the top 15 at the Valero Texas Open. Wyndham Clark (+30000) is also someone to consider at much deeper odds. Currently, Clark ranks fourth in average driving distance (316.7 yards) and he finished 32nd at the Farmers Insurance Open (Torrey Pines) and eighth at the Genesis Invitational (Riviera CC) earlier this season.
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