The Wells Fargo Championship has given way to some longshot winners over the previous decade. Max Homa, James Hahn and Derek Ernest won here at +50000, and Homa was priced at $6,600 on DraftKings in 2019. The narrative all week has been to play more longshots, and yes, before you say anything, I agree this is a decent strategy. BUT, this is a contrarian article; we must play devil’s advocate and fade the chalk, especially if the cheaper golfers are becoming too popular. The top salaries are soaking up a lot of pre-tournament sentiment with their collective win equity, which is why our approach will be more balanced in GPP tournaments.
Like I mentioned in the DraftKings Preview, the average salary for the top-six golfers in DraftKings scoring over the previous two years has ranged inside the $8,000 to $9,000 range. This statistic doesn’t mean you have to roster only $8,000-golfers; it means starting your lineups with someone other than the top 3 priced players may be the way to go this week if you’re looking to take down a big tournament.
For a full course preview and who I like in the betting market, please refer to the DraftKings Preview and DraftKings Sportsbook articles. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
Projected Popular Golfer: Jon Rahm ($10,800)
Pivot: Webb Simpson ($10,200)
Rahm is the player we should have exposure to in this range, but he’s projecting to be the highest rostered golfer amongst the $10,000-plus players and second-most on the slate. Moving shares to the native North Carolinian, Webb Simpson, should be considered here, where he finished with a top-five in 2012, runner-up in 2015 and a top 20 in 2019. He’s playing well on these classic, American-style layouts, finishing no worse than 12th at Augusta National and an eighth at Winged Foot in last year’s U.S. Open. Simpson’s ball-striking has been inconsistent, but potentially getting him below double-digit roster percentage at Quail Hollow may be too good to pass up.
$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Viktor Hovland ($9,800)
Pivot: Bubba Watson ($8,300)
Another weekend surge for Hovland where he gained 7.13 strokes Tee-to-Green catapulted him into a third-place finish last week at the Valspar Championship. The Copperhead Course is a solid corollary to Quail Hollow, which is why Vik is projecting to be the highest rostered golfer this week per fantasynational.com. Last week was also favorable to Bubba Watson, finishing 13th, which was his highest since the ZOZO Championship back in October last year. Bubba was able to gain four strokes Tee-to-Green last week and arrives at a course where his length and creativity Off-the-Tee will be an advantage over the field.
$7,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Matt Wallace ($7,500)
Pivot: Talor Gooch ($7,600)
Like Rahm, Wallace is someone to consider this week with how well he’s playing. Still, when any golfer’s projected roster percentage starts to increase above double-digits in this range, you’ll want to consider removing a slight position off him and pivoting elsewhere. Gooch was featured in last week’s preview article but subsequently missed the cut. When you look a little deeper on why he left early, it wasn’t because of his ball-striking; he couldn’t make a putt. The approach and driving stats are still solid, and for the same reasons we liked him last week, are the reasons we should be going back to him at Quail Hollow. He’s on fire with his irons, and if he starts to make some putts, watch out.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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