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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for May 7

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Friday is back to the normal start times for games. This pleases us.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jack Flaherty, $9,400, St. Louis Cardinals (-210) vs. Colorado Rockies (+175)— Flaherty is the fourth-most expensive pitcher on this slate but the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. It’s easy to see why, as he’ll be taking on this putrid Rockies offense at Busch Stadium. It’s important to look at their away numbers to take out what they’ve done at Coors, then you can really see how bad this team has been. On the road, the Rockies have a .280 wOBA with a .104 ISO and an 81 wRC+. Like, what are we doing here?

Flaherty, meanwhile, has been great thus far. His strikeouts are down a bit through six starts with a K% of 25.9% but his walks are also down at 7.2%. The good news is, he’s limiting hard contact with a 28.9% hard-hit rate and he’s been mixing in his slider a bit more, which the Rockies haven’t had much success against. I expect him to be very chalky because of the matchup and his salary.

Other notable favorite: Charlie Morton ($7,700; -150) vs. Philadelphia Phillies


Highest Projected Total

Washington Nationals (+155; 3.5 runs) at New York Yankees (-180; 5.5 runs) 9 runs — The Yankees are another team that are heavily favored going against the Nationals and Patrick Corbin ($6,600). You’ll notice this game has projected total of nine but the Yankees have a 5.5 team total compared to just 3.5 of the Nationals. The struggles for Corbin have been profound and it won’t get much easier tonight.

The Yankees have been a very good hitting club against lefties, boasting a .344 wOBA with a .194 ISO and a 125 wRC+. This isn’t a good sign for a pitcher that has a 7.52 FIP, a 5.4 BB/9 and a 2.7 HR/9. Corbin was rocked for 10 runs against the Diamondbacks in two innings in April and has been “ok” since. He’s still given up six runs in three starts since then but home runs and walks were still a struggle. I simply don’t see how this ends well for Corbin but for his sake, the bullpen behind him is well rested, having thrown just 18 23 innings over the last week. For his sake, he’ll likely be having those relievers deployed early.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Slugfest [$50K to 1st]


Weather Notes

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles - Rain will be around when the game is about to begin. This will likely start in a delay but SHOULD play after it clears. To be fair, I’m not a weatherman so don’t take my word for it.


Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Mike Foltynewicz, .429, 7.29
Brad Keller, .393, 4.30
Zach Eflin, .364, 3.57

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Austin Gomber, .184, 3.38
Matt Harvey, .191, 3.47
Charlie Morton, .217, 2.52


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Patrick Corbin, .462, 8.93
Tarik Skubal, .447, 10.41
Matt Harvey, .363, 3.51

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Anthony DeSclafani, .191, 3.20
Carlos Rodon, .194, 2.70
Zac Gallen, .210, 2.41


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies, $9,600 — Just play Flaherty tonight, thanks.



Stud Hitter to Pay For

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians vs. Cincinnati Reds, $5,600 — Ramirez is crushing the ball right. If you don’t believe me, check out his recent game log. He’s averaging 12.1 DKFP with 10 hits, including five home runs and eight RBI. Also, don’t just use game logs for research.

Tonight, he faces off against Wade Miley ($6,700) who has some good stats on the surface but his 4.14 FIP against righties caught my attention. If Ramirez is going to keep hitting this way, I think this is a great spot for him against someone that has struggled with home runs in the past.


Save Big by Drafting

Aaron Hicks, New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals, $3,000 — Could it be!? Is Hicks finally starting to come around at the plate!? Over his last five games, he’s averaging 8.6 DKFP, knocked in a few runs and scored some. If anything, he gets you very cheap exposure to a Yankees team that has a 5.5 team total. Hicks doesn’t cost much at all and DOES get you someone who just last season .350 wOBA, a .178 ISO and a 123 wRC+. Truly, you can’t go wrong here and he doesn’t need to do much at $3K.


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